Midterms offer Trump, Dems clues
The 2020 election’s horizon line got a bit sharper
Washington — This week’s midterm elections offered revealing lessons for both parties as battle lines begin to emerge for the 2020 presidential election.
For Democrats, the potential path back to the White House opened somewhat with a string of statewide victories in Rust Belt states that long backed the party’s nominees but flipped to President Donald Trump in 2016. But Republicans found strength in critical states that often hold the keys to the presidency.
Perhaps no state offered Democrats more hope than Wisconsin, which shocked the party in 2016 by narrowly falling into Trump’s column. Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s narrow loss in his bid for a third term left Democrats optimistic they could reclaim Wisconsin along with other traditionally blue states that Trump carried, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Still, there are plenty of reasons for caution for Democrats. Gains in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were offset by mixed results in Ohio and GOP dominance in electoral powerhouse Florida.
In Ohio, Republicans came out on top in the governor’s race and a handful of other statewide offices. The GOP kept their 12-4 majority in the U.S. House delegation.
There were also warning signs for Democrats in Florida, a perennial swing state that is increasingly delivering victories — however narrow — to the GOP. Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, handing Democrats their third consecutive loss for the Florida governor’s mansion. Adding to their trouble was incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson trailing Republican Rick Scott.
One bright note for Democrats in Florida was the passage of Amendment 4, which will restore voting rights to most felons when they complete their sentences and probation, adding 1.4 million possible voters to the rolls. It’s unclear how this group of people will affect the 2020 election.
Democrats also see bright signs in places like Nevada, once a conservative state that is now more consistently trending blue. And Democrat Stacey Abrams ran a competitive campaign for governor in Georgia, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the governor’s mansion since 1998.
“There are some assumptions about states Democratic presidential candidates will visit that are being truly reconsidered,” Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said. “I’m talking about changing the map.”
Tensions were already flaring over what type of candidate could capitalize on the emerging 2020 map.
“We’re going to see a huge field, but the big question will be whether they learn lessons from the midterms because I think the electorate was trying to tell us something loudly and clearly,” Matt Bennett of Third Way, a centrist think tank, said in an interview.
“The message they were trying to send us is you’ve got to beat Trump in the battleground states, and you’ve got to run on very mainstream, nonextreme Democratic ideals and values.”
“The people that ran that way won in those tough places,” Bennett added, “and the people who didn’t run that way lost almost everywhere.”
But Adam Green, a co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said he saw a shifting center of gravity within the Democratic Party.
“Thanks to Stacey Abrams, Andrew Gillum and Beto O’Rourke, places where Democrats have had trouble winning for years became unpredictable toss-ups in large part because of an electorate inspired by never-before-heard bold visions for economic and racial justice,” Green said.