Will Somers take off in 2020, or fizzle?
All indications point to state Sen. Heather Somers having a serious interest in making a bid to be the Republican candidate for governor in 2022. That makes what happens to Somers in the 2020 election even more interesting.
Why? Because Somers needs to retain her 18th District Senate seat next November to demonstrate vote-getting ability and from which to launch an attempt to become governor. It is possible, I suppose, that Somers could rise from the ashes of a Senate reelection defeat to become the party’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, but it’s not likely.
And winning in the 18th, in a presidential election year, won’t be easy. Her ambitions make her a bigger target for Democrats.
It was immediately after the 2018 state election that Somers, 53, signaled her interest in running for governor. No, she didn’t say that, but a press release put out after the election pointed out how well the incumbent ran in a toss-up district on what was otherwise a bad night for Connecticut Republicans. The GOP saw Democrats expand their majorities in the state House and Senate, while also missing a seemingly golden opportunity to take the governor’s seat. Instead, Ned Lamont defeated the choice of Republican primary voters, businessman and political outsider Bob Stefanowski.
Somers’ performance “offered the GOP a roadmap for winning in the state,” said the release. Subtle, it was not.
In April GOPAC, “committed to identifying and supporting the next generation of Republican leaders,” named Somers among 30 state Republican legislators nationwide as “Emerging Leaders.”
Republicans face an unprecedented gender gap in the upcoming presidential election. Polls show that among women, President Donald Trump faces a 25 percent deficit when paired against the top Democratic candidates. Men favor the president by 10 percent, creating a 35 percent gender gap.
Against those headwinds, Somers knows Connecticut Republicans have to do a better job among women voters. She is the only Republican woman in the state Senate. In 2018, Republican primary voters selected among five candidates for governor — all men.
In a move to address this imbalance, and to build her own base for a future run for governor, the senator last August announced she was launching Somers PAC, a political action committee “dedicated to strengthening Connecticut by electing more Republican women, business leaders and municipal leaders to office.”
“I thought I should do all I can to support women,” Somers said in announcing the PAC. Its rules prohibit her from receiving the PAC’s money.
Somers was Sen. Len Fasano’s choice for the seat he was designated to fill on the Governor’s Council on Women and Girls. Fasano is the Senate Republican minority leader. The council is charged with seeking ways to: improve educational opportunities for women, particularly in male-dominated fields such as engineering and computer technology; provide workforce and economic opportunity equity; encourage women leaders; and provide for health and safety.
Groton, where Somers lives, and Stonington pose the biggest impediment to her reelection prospects. In Groton, for the second straight local election, voters placed the Town Council fully in control of the Democrats. Last month in Stonington, Republicans lost control of the Board of Selectmen. Anti-Trump sentiment is strong in these progressive-leaning towns.
Somers could benefit from trying to distance herself from Trump, but in so doing would risk support in the interior sections of the district — Griswold, Preston, Sterling, Plainfield, Voluntown, North Stonington — where Trump remains popular.
In opposing tax increases, tolls, and
in criticizing over regulation, Somers has positioned herself as a pro-business, fiscal conservative, while at the same time building a pro-environmental and access to health care record. She is the ranking minority leader on the Public Health Committee.
She received a “100 percent rating” on environmental legislation from the Connecticut League of Conservation Voters and has been honored by groups focused on elder care and mental health issues for her work on public health policy. In other words, a moderate. Yet her effort to win $10 million in state funding that could have been steered to the proposed Smiler’s Wharf project in Mystic — a project withdrawn in the face of grassroots opposition — will be grist for a future opponent. Somers said she was just doing her job in trying to win economic aid.
Whether it is a rematch against her 2018 Democratic opponent, Bob Statchen, or a new challenger, the 18th District race will be a good one in 2020. Paul Choiniere is the editorial page editor.