‘This race is really wide open’: Uncertainty hangs over Nevada

Las Vegas — Bernie Sanders is the favorite. Amy Klobuchar is untested, but riding a wave of momentum. And Joe Biden desperately needs to turn his campaign around.

Beyond that, even Democrats deeply familiar with Nevada are hesitant to make any sort of prediction ahead of Saturday’s caucuses, where a cloud of certainty is hanging over a contest that has taken on a greater sense of urgency after the leading candidates emerged closely divided from the first two states.

“Usually a combination of polling history and understanding the local dynamic will give you a good sense of how things will shake out by this point,” said Mark Mellman, a longtime pollster for former Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and the president of Democratic Majority for Israel, which has run ads attacking Sanders. “But this race is really wide open. There are people with upward momentum, and people with downward momentum.”

After spending the bulk of the past few months focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, the Democratic presidential contenders tried to make up for lost time over the weekend, campaigning relentlessly in Nevada as thousands of voters began to cast ballots early.

In a still-jumbled race, any level of unexpected success for the top candidates could give them a boost heading into the South Carolina primary at the end of the month — and, perhaps more critically, the delegate-rich contests of Super Tuesday in March.

“As all of you know, we won the popular vote in Iowa,” Sanders said during a Saturday morning rally in a suburban high school, drawing raucous cheers. “We won the New Hampshire primary. With your help, we can win here in Nevada. We are together going to win the Democratic nomination. And together we’re going to defeat Trump and transform this country.”

The unusual volatility in Nevada is the result of several factors, local Democrats say. After his strong showings in the first two contests, Sanders is widely viewed as the front-runner in the state, though not an overwhelming one, thanks to his committed base of support.

The two candidates that finished the closest behind the Vermont senator in New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg and Klobuchar, also have had the least support among African American and Latino voters, who make up a significant share of the state’s electorate.