The race to unseat Trump takes a big turn

Our editorial the morning of the Super Tuesday primary conjectured that it could determine the direction of the Democratic Party, while providing assurances that, whatever happened, it would make for “riveting political theater.” Well, it did, and it was. But what no one seemingly predicted, including us, was the dramatic surge of Joe Biden. It has changed everything.

Biden is now the frontrunner, the race for the Democratic nomination to face President Donald Trump his to lose. Conventional wisdom going into Super Tuesday was that Biden, the former vice president, would be in survival mode. Could Biden prevent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders from mounting a delegate lead so large that it would be impossible to catch him?

Instead, Biden emerged with the delegate lead. When days from now the counting is done in California, where Sanders will win, that lead will narrow, maybe even disappear.

But the primary calendar turns more favorably toward Biden. And the factors that proved a drag on Sanders on Super Tuesday won’t go easily away. Meanwhile support, financial and otherwise, will be pouring into the Biden campaign.

Sanders performed terribly with black voters, particularly in the South. This was his problem four years ago in his primary contest against Hillary Clinton. And it is unlikely to change. The senator had four years to pursue a strategy to enlarge his black support. If there was any strategy, it didn’t work.

The bigger problem for Sanders is that he is more insurgent than politician. When he obtained his brief frontrunner status in the early primaries, he did nothing to broaden his support, sticking with his hard-left “revolution” that called for a massive expansion of government to provide free health care and college educations to all.

On a night that saw record primary voter turnout, the number of younger votes was down in some states over 2016. This hurt Sanders and raises doubts about his argument that his candidacy would generate a massive young-voter turnout that would overwhelm Trump in the general election.

Biden’s wins in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maine and Texas were shocking. He had no money to spend and little time to campaign in any of those places.

As the field narrowed after Biden’s landslide victory in South Carolina on Saturday, with Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar withdrawing and backing Biden, the choice became clearer between the centrist candidate, Biden, who wants to build on the legacy of Barack Obama, and the candidate calling for big and fundamental change that would move the country more in a socialist direction, Sanders. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, despite spending a reported $500 million during his 100day campaign, was not the major factor expected.

In what essentially became a twoman race, and certainly is now, the late-deciding voters broke overwhelmingly to Biden, exit polls showed. For most Democratic voters, defeating Trump is the top priority. They recognized Biden has the better chance of doing so by attracting moderate Democrats, independents and even some willing Republicans, who might otherwise go with Trump if his opponent were Sanders.

Connecticut

The nomination will probably still be contested when the Connecticut primary takes place April 28. Sanders is unlikely to withdraw even if he begins to fall significantly behind. New York also votes that day.

Gov. Ned Lamont was one of the earliest officials to endorse Biden. That didn’t look like such a great choice even a week ago. It does now.

Bloomberg and Warren

Bloomberg’s decision to withdraw from the race Wednesday was more good news for Biden, who received the former mayor’s immediate endorsement. Bloomberg’s big organization, and the billionaire’s enormous spending power, will now be used to boost Biden and other Democratic candidates.

While Sen. Elizabeth Warren did not perform great as a candidate, she did have a big influence. Her attacks on Bloomberg in the debates appeared to stall the former mayor’s campaign before it could even lift off, chiefly benefiting Biden. And most of the votes she did get Super Tuesday probably came at Sanders’ expense.

If Warren stays in, she will continue to drain progressive support from Sanders. However, she will likely end her candidacy.

Super Tuesday showed once again that even in an age of political analytics, constant polling and 24-hour cable news analysis, politics — and voters — can still surprise.