Public transit is down in cities.
Meanwhile, in China, subway traffic picking up
Life in many major U.S. cities has settled into a new, stuck-at-home routine. Activity in public, measured by demand for public transit, has leveled off at about 70% of where it used to be. And it could stay this way for months.
In this data-starved environment, public transit demand is a relatively well-focused lens with which to view the pandemic’s economic effect. The coronavirus recession was caused, at its heart, by one thing: the end of in-person economic activity, particularly in locked-down, densely populated areas. The economy is in free fall, because people can’t go anywhere, from work or school to brewpubs and ballgames. That’s what transit measures.
Mass transit is centered in the cities that have been hardest hit in the pandemic’s early phase, and it serves many of the low-income service workers who, early on, bore the brunt of the epidemic. Just as importantly, transit data is extremely responsive to the government restrictions, which vaporized economic activity in the name of saving hundreds of thousands of lives.
From March 9 to March 23, activity on U.S. transit systems went from normal to 31% of the usual level, according to the Transit app, which millions use to check for the next train, or plan their bus transfers. In the week-plus since March 23, it has stuck around 30%.
New York City looms large in the nation’s transit statistics, but the app’s coverage is broad. Every time users open Transit, they contribute anonymous real-time data for systems such as the Kansas City Area Transportation Authority, which saw ridership down 38% as of Friday, to Bay Area Rapid Transit, which was down 86%.
The public routines that governed commuters’ lives have nearly halted. Rush hour has withered to a tiny bump, with about as much demand as there used to be at midnight. There are people still using mass transit, particularly that smaller group of front-line workers bringing folks food from restaurants and online shops, and those working in grocery stores and pharmacies.
Trains and buses are the first public spaces many lower-income Americans will encounter once their city or state’s lockdown ends and will be an early signal of the coming thaw.
In China, subway traffic is picking up again, albeit with temperature checks at the entrances. And when people are comfortable riding public transit in large numbers once more, we’ll know the old normal is back.
But transit ridership isn’t the first number we should watch. Because experts say transit data depends on another variable: local stay-home orders and restrictions on public activity. And those restrictions themselves ultimately depend on coronavirus infection totals.