Planet’s most abnormally cold air to surge into Lower 48 states

Stunning cold is beginning to crash southward from the Arctic into the Lower 48 states. It could break hundreds of records this weekend into early next week.

The Arctic blast will produce the planet’s biggest negative temperature anomalies over parts of the western and central United States, in some places up to 60 degrees below normal. It will make for icy NFL playoff games in Kansas City and Buffalo this weekend and frigid Iowa caucuses Monday, and could test the Texas power grid.

When the chill first invades Montana and the northern Plains, temperatures are forecast to be as much as 50 to 60 degrees below normal. Parts of Montana are forecast to see lows of minus-40 or lower. Most of the north-central United States will also see at least a day or two featuring temperatures not rising above zero.

Wind chills below minus-30 degrees, forecast for much of the northern Plains and northern Rockies, “will pose an increased risk of frostbite on exposed skin and hypothermia,” the National Weather Service warned. “Have a cold survival kit if you must travel.”

More than 7 million people are under wind chill alerts from Montana to Kansas.

This cold air outbreak is coming off a very mild start to winter, so it will come as a shock. Much of the northern contiguous United States has observed temperatures about five to 10 degrees above average since Dec. 1.

If current forecasts hold, areas home to more than 50 million Americans are expected to drop below zero through next Tuesday. Almost the entire Lower 48 faces temperatures at or below freezing at some point by the middle of next week.

Central U.S. faces brunt of polar plunge

This winter’s coldest air so far has already entered the nation’s far northern tier from Montana to North Dakota. By Saturday, most of the northern and central Plains could experience highs below zero and widespread lows of minus-15 or colder.

In Montana, lows are predicted to dip near and below minus-40 both Saturday and Sunday. Wind chills could approach minus-60 or minus-70 both there and in the northern Plains.

By Monday morning, temperatures within a few degrees of zero are expected to stretch as far south as Amarillo, Texas, and Oklahoma City, while extending across northern Arkansas and then toward Indianapolis. Locations as far east as the spine of the Appalachians could flirt with zero Tuesday morning.

Texas grid faces a test

With the Arctic air mass sinking into the southern Plains, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas issued a weather watch for Jan. 15 to 17 (Monday through Wednesday) because of the anticipated high heating demand.

Texas’s statewide low temperature is forecast to average around 15 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

The grid is expected to hold, thanks to both increased capacity and the fact that the cold will not be as severe or prolonged as the extreme event in February 2021 when it collapsed.

Frigid for playoff football

A wild card weekend kickstarts the playoffs with a throwback to frozen football games of old.

The Weather Service is predicting a high near zero in Kansas City on Saturday when the Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins.

The kickoff temperatures will probably be in the single digits before dropping to near zero in the fourth quarter. Factoring in frigid winds, it will feel like minus-15 or so. There could be some very light snow in the air, too.

When the Buffalo Bills face the Pittsburgh Steelers at home Sunday afternoon, fresh snow should be on the ground, and it may still be falling from bands off Lake Erie. Up to a couple more inches could fall during the game, with temperatures in the low or mid20s. But it will feel closer to the single digits to near zero as winds gust to 30 to 40 mph.

Iowa caucuses face chill

The long-awaited opening salvo of the 2024 presidential election begins Monday with the caucuses in Iowa. And it will be nearly as cold as it gets.

Highs on Monday shouldn’t get above zero across much of the state, while deep snow remains on the ground from recent storms. Temperatures will hover just above record lows for the date in most areas.

By Monday evening, temperatures are forecast to be in the single digits below zero before dropping overnight to minus-15 or minus-20. Winds gusting around 30 mph could deliver wind chills of minus-20 to minus-30 during the evening, dipping as far as minus-40 overnight.

Reaching the East Coast

By Tuesday morning, subzero cold is expected to stretch as far as southern Kansas and Missouri.

Although the Arctic blast will moderate farther east, the coldest air of the season will also arrive along the East Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Lows may dip to the midand upper teens along the Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to Boston on Wednesday, with interior areas in the single digits or colder. Freezing highs are probable from Washington northward.

Freezing overnight conditions may also dip to northern Florida by Wednesday, with the rest of the Gulf Coast probably sinking into the 20s.