Poll shows divide is sharply partisan
American opinions on the Iran nuclear agreement have grown sharply polarized along party lines, according to a new poll released on Tuesday as the White House closes in on support needed in the Senate to block Republican opposition to the deal.
A survey by the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation finds that Americans narrowly support the deal, with 52 percent wanting Congress to approve it and 47 percent wanting the pact rejected.
Democrats and Republicans are polar opposites in their view of the accord, which would lift international sanctions against the Islamic republic in exchange for Iran restricting its nuclear program so it cannot build nuclear weapons for a decade or longer. Nearly 7 in 10 Democrats support the deal. An identical share of Republicans are opposed. Among independents, 6 in 10 express support.
The poll helps explain the White House strategy of focusing on Democratic support in Congress in advance of a vote on whether to “disapprove” the agreement reached between Iran and six world powers, including the United States. Virtually all Republicans have said they will vote against the deal. The administration is just one vote shy of the 34 needed in the Senate to sustain a presidential veto, allowing it to proceed.
The unique, detailed survey, which gave respondents a briefing on the issue vetted by congressional staffers and outlined core arguments for and against the agreement, shows Democratic support largely unchanged from similar in-depth surveys before the final deal was reached in July. But Republican backing has eroded dramatically, swinging from majority support to overwhelming opposition. A similar survey in February found that more than 6 in 10 people overall backed the broad outlines of a deal, with majorities among both Democrats and Republicans.
The new survey and other polls suggest that a massive campaign to stop the deal has gained traction with the public. Other recent polls, providing few details or specifics of the deal, have generally found Americans tenuous about the agreement and tilting toward opposition.
For example, 55 percent of voters opposed the deal in a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday — more than double the 25 percent who supported it. A mid-August CNNORC poll found 56 percent saying Congress should reject the deal, although in a separate question, 50 percent supported the broad framework.
Democrats in particular remain supportive of the agreement and largely unpersuaded by Republican arguments against it.
With two weeks remaining before Congress votes Sept. 17, the surveys suggest attitudes toward the complex, nuanced agreement are malleable and could turn against the deal.