Can the Broncos’ Gary Kubiak win a big game against the Patriots’ Bill Belichick?
As a head coach, Gary Kubiak leads a team to the conference championship game for the first time. “This is a little different,” Kubiak admitted. And he has to go against Bill Belichick, who has been on this stage 10 times with Tom Brady. “I think they’re very comfortable in this environment,” Kubiak said. Is this a coaching mismatch waiting to happen? Or can Kubes hold his own against Coach Hoodie with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line? Renck: No modern coach can compare with Belichick, based on his résumé. He has a built a dynasty in the salary cap era, strengthening his argument as the NFL’s greatest boss of all time. But it isn’t Kubiak’s fault he led the Texans for eight seasons. Had he coached the Broncos during that time, this would be his third or fourth trip to the AFC title game. He owns three Super Bowl rings, has experience in big games, had New England on the ropes last season when he was the Ravens’ offensive coordinator and readies his team for all possibilities. That was always my gripe with John Fox. His teams looked unprepared on the biggest stage, beginning with the “Seasick” Super Bowl debacle.
Yes, Denver beat New England in November, knocking the Pats from the ranks of the unbeaten. But Broncos executive John Elway emphasized last week how hard it is to beat a good team twice in one season. It’s especially difficult because Belichick will deconstruct that game tape and relish a fresh chance to stump Kubiak. As Broncos coach, Mike Shanahan had a 5-3 record against Belichick. I hope Kubes called Shanny for advice.
Shanahan excelled at creating mismatches to exploit weaknesses. Kubiak’s offense isn’t built to win a high-scoring game. But I see similarities in Shanahan and Kubiak. They both grind, logging 18-hour days. Nothing that happens on a Sunday surprises them. And they hold back wrinkles. That’s why I think the tight ends— yes, even tight end Vernon Davis after his best week of practice— could be an X factor in this game.
Here’s what concerns me. On both sides of the football, the Broncos keep it simple, stupid. On offense, Kubiak likes to pound the rock and shorten the game, then win it in the fourth quarter. On defense, Wade Phillips likes to sit in man coverage and blitz on third down. Big moments call for bold moves. Can Phillips attack Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski in new ways? And will Kubiak go for it, if faced with a key fourth-and-1 situation? Renck: Phillips wants to play man coverage. It’s the identity of this defense. But he has to be willing to adjust quickly if Chris Harris’ sore left shoulder leaves him mismatched against Julian Edelman. The key for the Denver defense? Stunts up the middle from Derek Wolfe, Malik Jackson and Antonio Smith to disrupt Brady’s timing, allowing for a margin for error in coverage. Kubiak will be bold if the situation calls, but he won’t compromise his defense with unnecessary bravado. I believe you will see some empty backfield looks early in Sunday’s game to plant the seed that the Broncos trust Peyton Manning before returning to the suddenly trusted ground game in the fourth quarter.