Elway biggest loser in this Denver race

In a quarterback competition stacked against him, Trevor Siemian emerged as the big winner. The biggest loser? John Elway.

In the race to be the Broncos’ starting quarterback, Siemian eclipsed the favorite son of Elway. Everything about the first eight months of 2017 was tilted to give Paxton Lynch every opportunity to win the job. Let us count the ways. Elway changed his coaching staff, overhauled the team’s offensive scheme and erased all of Siemian’s credit for winning eight games as a starter last season.

When Denver takes the field for the season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers and for the foreseeable future, however, Siemian will be the starter. “It’s a

permanent decision,” Broncos rookie coach Vance Joseph said Monday.

While Siemian was the clear-cut winner during preseason games against Chicago and San Francisco, it wasn’t so much that he shined brighter than the sun during a protracted competition that began on the final day of last season, after Gary Kubiak’s final big decision as coach was to start Siemian over the franchise’s presumed quarterback of the future in a 24-6 victory against the Oakland Raiders.

While Elway can take the long view of winning from now on, Joseph will get quickly run out of town if he doesn’t win now. That’s why picking Siemian over Lynch was a nobrainer.

“It’s all about performance, not potential. Trevor’s ready to lead our football team,” Joseph said. “We’ve got two receivers that are all-pro caliber, we’ve got a great backfield and a fixed offensive line, so we need a guy who can operate at a high level all the time.”

Condemning Siemian with faint praise, here is Joseph’s one-line scouting report of the starting QB: He’s better than you think. After talking to numerous NFL coaches, Joseph consistently gets the same feedback on Siemian: “He’s a pretty good quarterback.”

OK, for a self-described slappy, Siemian is a remarkable success story. At a salary of $615,000, Siemian also offers far greater value than the $10 million that Miami flushed down the toilet to get rudely disappointed by Jay Cutler. The Broncos can win 10 games and advance to the playoffs with Siemian. But win the Super Bowl with Siemian? Only if your dreams are painted in orange and blue.

Despite Elway’s best efforts to help him succeed, Lynch lost out because he has proved to be a dim bulb when making decisions with the football a full 16 months after the Broncos traded up to select a strong-armed prospect out of Memphis in the draft. While it might be unfair to distill Lynch’s failure to beat out Siemian down to a single play, it’s impossible to forget how Lynch failed to recognize a wide-open Demaryius Thomas crossing in front of his eyes on a third-down play against the Niners on Saturday night and instead hurled a pass into double coverage in an illadvised and futile attempt to connect with tight end Virgil Green.

Full disclosure: I gave the Broncos big applause for drafting Lynch, who fit my theory that quarterbacks who lift mediocre college programs are better bets for NFL success than signal-callers surrounded by blue-chip talent at traditional powers such as Alabama and Southern Cal. Every touchdown pass Dak Prescott throws for Dallas makes me look bad for confidence in Lynch. Mea culpa.

But I also strongly advocated for Denver to take Russell Wilson ahead of the 2012 draft, when Elway elected instead to pick Brock Osweiler. Which only goes to show: Whether you own a gold jacket from the Pro Football Hall of Fame or spill yellow mustard on your jacket in the press box, evaluating quarterbacks is an inexact science.

Lynch now gets lumped alongside Brady Quinn and Johnny Manziel on a short, ugly list of recent hot firstround prospects who weren’t ready to start at quarterback by the outset of Year 2. Even Tim Tebow, for crying out loud, won the starting job with the Broncos before the end of October during his second pro season. And Tebow’s regularseason record as a starting quarterback in Denver was 8-6, which matches what Siemian achieved as a rookie with the benefit of an all-world defense.

While Siemian won the fight to be the starting quarterback on a technical knockout scored by doing all the small stuff that leaves Lynch stumped, it might be prudent to resist that urge to think the big debate in Broncos Country is all settled.

The quarterback situation in Denver remains very much unsettled, because being pretty good is not good enough for Broncos Country. Siemian can move the chains and keep the seat warm. But just because Siemian is the best choice to win now doesn’t mean he’s the quarterback from now on.

If Elway wants another ring, his search for a quarterback capable of winning the Super Bowl has only just begun.