A Rockies road ahead in picking MVP of MVPS
I’ll receive my official Baseball Writers’ Association of America ballot over the next few days. This year, I have a vote for the National League MVP. It’s a bit daunting because there are several intriguing story lines and two local players in the mix.
In my mind, the top five candidates, in no particular order, are Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon, Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been scouring the web, reading arguments for this player vs. that player. For example, if you want to read a solid argument for Blackmon, I suggest you read Craig Edwards’ recent article in Fangraphs. The article is heavy on metrics, but Edwards also wrote something I found compelling:
“If you do choose to penalize him further for playing in Colorado, you might want to appropriately credit him for the observed difficulty of hitting on the road after playing at Coors.”
Of course I’m going to compare statistics before I vote.
Consider Goldschmidt vs. Arenado. “Goldy” entered the weekend batting .305, with 35 homers, 117 RBIS, a .410 on-base percentage, .986 OPS (on-base percentage, plus slugging) and a 6.0 WAR (wins above replacement). The stats for “Golden Nolan” were equally impressive: .306 average, 34 homers, 125 RBIS, .370 on-base percentage, .949 OPS and a 6.6 WAR.
Then again, Stanton’s 1.012 OPS and 7.3 WAR are impossible to ignore.
As you can see, it’s a tough call, and one I’m not quite ready to make.
A definition of MVP — most valuable player — is left to the eye of the beholder, or at the discretion of the voter. Many factors will figure into my MVP vote:
• The historical significance of a player’s season. For instance, if Stanton hits six homers down the stretch and surpasses Roger Maris’ mark of 61, that’s huge.
Then again, Blackmon entered the weekend with 94 RBIS as a leadoff hitter, an NL record for a single season. Blackmon also had 83 extra-base hits from the leadoff spot, also an NL record and the fourth-most in MLB history.
• A team’s success, or lack thereof, matters. Goldschmidt has helped lift the Diamondbacks to the next level and they just might be the NL’S best team right now. As great at Votto is year after year the Reds are 66-87 and I can’t see myself casting a first-place vote for him. Also, if the Rockies’ slide continues and they fail to make the postseason, I’ll look at that, too.
• Defense. Arenado’s incredible nightly highlight show at third base counts for a lot. I get to see him almost every night, but I make a point of it to ask other beat writers for their impressions of Arenado. Almost universally, they say he’s one of the best defensive players they have ever seen.
• Consistency. This is where Blackmon shines again for me. From the beginning of the season until now, he has been the energizing force for the Rockies.
I’m honest enough to admit that I have a built-in bias for both Rockies players. After all, I watch the Rockies almost every day, talk to them frequently and have become a fan. I’ll try to take those personal feelings out of the equation.
Bottom line: When I cast my vote at season’s end, I’ll be prepared and I’ll be honest.