Evaluating Allen: QB an odd study for NFL scouts
LA R A MIE» The stands of War Memorial Stadium are mostly empty as Josh Allen makes his way toward midfield, ball in hand.
Allen is wearing a Tshirt, brown baggy basketball shorts and headphones. Wyoming’s game against Oregon is still about 90 minutes away, but the show is about to start. Representatives from 16 NFL teams are gathered on the sideline to see one of the most intriguing quarterback prospects in the country, and he doesn’t disappoint. He’s big, but nimble, and the ball explodes from his hand effortlessly.
He looks like a natural, only there’s a problem.
This will end up being the best part of Allen’s day. During the game, he took a beating and completed just six passes.
Allen is a fascinating case study of the NFL evaluation process. He is a rare physical talent, but his teammates have been overmatched by top-notch competition. As a result, so has he. While some fans look at Allen’s underwhelming stats against Power Five competition — and proclaim “OV-ER-RA-TED!” — scouts are digging deeper. A player’s draft stock does rise and fall from week to week. In the long run, how Allen deals with failure could be more valuable to him than if he had thrown four touchdown passes against the Ducks.
“Everything is not black and white,” former NFL general manager and Pro Football Hall of Famer Bill Polian said. “What goes on this season is important. You’re going to want to watch the tape. You’re going to want to watch his team live. You’re going to want to see how he handles adversity. You want to see how he performs with a lesser team around him than he had last year.
“All of that is part of the equation.”
Allen was hyped as a possible first-round draft pick all summer, so expectations for the Cowboys were still high. Reality set in when Wyoming was beaten 24-3 in the opener at Iowa and Allen threw for 174 yards and two interceptions.
“Of course it would have helped him (to play well against Iowa), but I didn’t expect that,” said former NFL scout Chris Landry of Landryfootball.com. “Those ends at Iowa really just torched (Wyoming).”
Still, there were moments when Allen’s gifts were on display.
“Third down, rips an absolute freakin’ dime on a rope 45 yards, hits the guy on the face mask. Incomplete,” said former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer, who works with the Elite 11 quarterback competition for top high school prospects.
Then came Oregon last weekend, and it got even worse. The Ducks were all over Allen and he went 6for-24 for 64 yards with an interception and two fumbles in the 49-13 loss.
ESPN draft analyst Todd Mcshay said watching the Oregon film, he counted five dropped passes in Wyoming’s first 26 plays.
“He’s getting pressured, not every time, but just about I’d say 70 percent of his dropbacks, he’s either getting pressure early — before 2½ seconds — or his receivers aren’t separating, so he’s forced to hold the ball and move and avoid pressure and then try to reset and throw. Or throw on the run while a defender is closing in on him,” Mcshay said. “What are you supposed to do?”
The quarterback class for the next NFL draft has a chance to be exceptionally strong, with UCLA’S Josh Rosen and USC’S Sam Darnold likely to enter. Dilfer said that could be to Allen’s benefit.
“We have overdrafted quarterbacks the last few years,” Dilfer said.
Evaluators generally agree that Allen is physically ahead of Wentz, who blew away NFL executives with his competitive character, leadership skills and willingness and capacity to learn.
Those traits usually make or break quarterbacks in the NFL. That part of evaluating Allen is incomplete, but it will have a far greater effect on where he will be drafted than his stats against Oregon. Faking those traits is more difficult when times are tough.
“And I hope people see that I’m going to be battletested,” Allen said “I’m going to be put through the ringer. Mentally, physically, whatever the case may be, it’s going to make me a better quarterback.”