Holland isn’t the only option

It wouldn’t be too big a stretch to say that closer Greg Holland was the Rockies’ MVP over the first half of the 2017 season.

His unflappable presence and ability to close out tight games pushed the Rockies to one of their best starts in franchise history. What’s more, Holland helped a young team believe in itself.

From April 3 to June 9, he converted 23 consecutive save opportunities, posting a 1.14 ERA. By June 20, the Rockies were 47-26, held first place in the National League West and Holland’s save count was up to 25.

“He knows what he’s doing,” manager Bud Black raved at the time. “He knows how to pitch the ninth inning, regardless of situation, regardless of the circumstances, regardless of the conditions, he knows how to pitch the ninth inning”

Now, however, the Rockies might have to find a new closer who can give them late-game security. The club’s success or failure in this offseason game could well determine their fate in 2018.

Though Holland hasn’t officially rejected his $15 million player option, the veteran right-hander is expected to do that en route to becoming a free agent. The Rockies likely will make a strong play to resign Holland, who tied a franchise record with 41 saves, but there are no guarantees he will be back.

That leaves general manage Jeff Bridich facing major decisions when the hot-stove season heats up after the World Series. The following is an analysis of some of the Rockies’ options at closer:

Re-sign Holland

The logistics of such a strategy could begin with Colorado offering Holland a one-year, $18.1 million qualifying offer. Holland would most likely turn down the offer, which means the Rockies would receive a high pick in the 2019 draft should he sign with another team. But even if Holland rejected the qualifying offer, the Rockies could still make a push to re-sign him on the free-agent market.

Bridich, who doesn’t reveal much about his team-building blueprint, said: “I do believe we will be in touch with Holland’s representatives about next year, assuming he formally turns down his player option with us.”

How much would it cost to bring Holland back? That’s difficult to say. A starting point could be the four-year, $62 million contract San Francisco gave closer Mark Melancon last winter. That breaks down to an average of $15.5 million per season. Holland made $15 million with the Rockies in 2017 after meeting all of his contract incentives.

The big, looming question is, how many years will the Rockies, or another team, be willing to offer Holland? And that question is muddied by Holland’s performance in the second half of the 2017 season. Holland turns 32 next month, he’s pitched 377 innings since his major-league debut in 2010 and he underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2015.

Holland finished his season in Colorado with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched). Before the all-star break, he posted a 1.62 ERA with a 1.020 WHIP and averaged 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents averaged a .161 batting average against him. But after the break, he had a 6.38 ERA.

Promote from within

It’s conceivable, though not likely, that Bridich and Black will look to their roster to find the club’s next closer. Three candidates seem to fit the profile — Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez and Carlos Estevez, all hardthrowing right-handers.

Estevez, 24, whose fastball can reach 100 mph, has closed before, converting 11-of-18 save chances as a rookie in 2016. But he looked in over his head by the end of that experiment and has struggled to regain consistency since.

Senzatela, 22, saw time as a starter and reliever in his first season in the majors. He had a 5.03 ERA as a starter in 20 games vs. a 3.04 ERA in 16 relief stints.

Marquez, 22, who had a combination of a 95 mph fastball and excellent curveball, finished 11-7 with a 4.39 ERA in 20 starts, with 147 strikeouts vs. 49 walks. He led all rookies with 14 quality starts.

Free agent or trade

Coaxing a free-agent pitcher to come to the Mile High City is always a difficult task.

The Cubs’ Wade Davis, for example, would certainly demand a lot more to come to Colorado. The same goes for a pitcher like steady Dodgers relievers Tony Watson, a left, and righty Brandon Morrow, who could have a cheaper price tag because of his history of injuries.

Patrick Saunders is the president of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America: psaunders@denverpost.com or @psaundersdp