To be a winner, make the playbook thinner
Afour-game losing streak is bad enough. But it gets worse. The Broncos are uncertain how they want to win. Can you say identity crisis?
“I wouldn’t say there’s one thing that we can really hang our hat on right now,” quarterback Brock Osweiler said Wednesday.
Well, alrighty then.
With the NFL season halfway gone, Denver on the brink of tumbling from playoff contention and Tom Brady on his way to our dusty old cow town, it’s probably a little late for Vance Joseph and his coaching staff to be spitballing on what kind of team they want the Broncos to be.
But here we are, stuck with a 3-5 record and linebacker Shane Ray sitting in the Denver locker room, offering a blunt assessment of a team searching for answers.
“Our formula is off right now,” Ray said.
The formula for Denver is not as complicated as the 11 secret herbs and spices of Colonel Sanders. There’s nothing subtle about the Broncos. They run the rock on offense, and they get after the quarterback on defense. Or else they lose.
Those dramatic fourth-quarter comebacks? They retired with Peyton Manning.
Yes, the last time Osweiler started against New England, the Broncos did rally from a 21-7 deficit in the final 14 minutes, 50 seconds of regulation to record an overtime victory that kicked Denver’s run to Super Bowl 50 into high gear. But, Osweiler admitted, “That game was a long ways back.”
This Denver team is built to play from ahead, and it courts disaster whenever playing from behind.
While there are certainly more advanced metrics to analyze how the Broncos have unraveled, the most revealing statistic of this frustrating season is brutally simple.
When the Broncos began the season with a 3-1 record, they outscored opponents 27-0 in the first quarter.
During the 0-4 slide, the Broncos have been outscored 41-3 in the first quarter.
Maybe this defense isn’t quite what it used to be. When the Broncos can take an early lead, however, Von Miller and Ray can tee off on the pass rush, while harried quarterbacks are forced to take chances against cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris.
Denver’s seven takeaways (five interceptions, two fumble recoveries) through eight games rank 28th among 32 NFL teams. Even worse, the minus-12 in turnover margin places the Broncos tied for dead last with Cleveland.
“When we’re playing from behind, you’re fighting an uphill battle. On first and second down, you’re probably going to get runs. And on third down, if they’re up by 21 points, the quarterback doesn’t have to throw the ball down the field,” Ray said. “As a defense, that destroys our entire chemistry of what we’re trying to do.”
Far too often the game plan devised by offensive coordinator Mike McCoy seems to have been devised as if he were still coaching veteran quarterback Philip Rivers in San Diego.
Five members of Denver’s staff — general manger John Elway, QBs coach Bill Musgrave and adviser Gary Kubiak, as well as Joseph and McCoy — played quarterback in college and/or the pros. Maybe it’s time for those men to swallow a little pride and dumb down the offense.
Early in the season, Talib bragged McCoy was operating the same offense that made Manning the NFL’s most valuable player in 2013. The problem? Denver no longer has one of the most beautiful minds in football history playing quarterback.
I’m not suggesting the playbook be pared back to the remedial level presented to Tim Tebow in 2011. But let’s see a four-quarter commitment to the run, more touches for running back Devontae Booker, use of an unbalanced offensive line to bludgeon the Patriots, an emphasis on blocking over receiving for the tight end and fewer decisions to be made by Osweiler on the field, both prior to the snap and from the pocket.
Denver has not enjoyed a seven-point lead in a game since Oct. 1. It might be nice for a change if the Broncos started fast.
“That’s going to give our team a ton of momentum,” Osweiler said.
How to do it?
The Broncos have two choices: KISS (keep it simple, stupid). Or kiss any hope for the playoffs goodbye.