Dems see backlash on tax bill as a key to winning suburbs

HOLLIS, N.H.» For decades, the battle lines in New England’s most politically conservative state were clear. Republicans ran on tax cuts. Democrats ran on targeted tax credits. Both parties kept New Hampshire free of a state income or sales tax, blurring some distinctions for suburban voters.

Then came the Republican tax plan in Congress.

“Do you think it’s right to raise taxes on millions of hard-working Americans?” asked Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., at a Friday night Democratic fundraiser. “Do you want to risk a $25 billion yearly cut to Medicare to give the wealthiest few a tax cut?”

The crowd of about 600 Democrats bellowed “no,” still shocked by the party’s recent political gains. Coming off Election Day wins from Seattle to Long Island, Democrats are starting to see the shape of a new majority, built on a potential suburban backlash to changes in the tax code.

“It’s incredible,” said Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., a vice chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who has helped the party recruit candidates in suburban West Coast districts. “I don’t understand why they think raising taxes on the middle class to benefit the rich would be better for them electorally than doing nothing at all.”

Republicans have accused the minority party of demagoguery and bad math. In New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has praised the tax plan for doubling the standard deduction and adding a property-tax exemption. Democrats have falsely claimed that the bill would raise taxes on “most workingclass families” — only 6.5 percent of lower-income households will take a direct hit, although many taxpayers making less than $100,000 would get little.

Yet Democratic wins, and polling about the tax bill, has led the party to think that it can cleave millions of voters from the GOP.

In a column for conservative news website Newsmax this week, pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin wrote that voters generally approved of “President Trump’s plan to cut taxes,” but opposed the elimination of state and local deductions — an idea that was “driving disapproval” for whatever Republicans proposed.

“We have polled for 21 currently sitting House Republican members,” the McLaughlins wrote. “Many of these members are in hard-fought battleground districts which would see a tax increase if the state and local deduction was eliminated. We helped them get elected and want to make their re-election easier, not harder.”

Thursday’s tax vote in the House revealed who some of those members were, many from California, New Jersey and New York. In statements, they echoed Democrats in predicting that the bill would hurt the middle class.

“When my constituents who are very good with their numbers tell me that they are going to be (paying) $5,000 to $10,000 more in taxes, I’m supposed to represent their interests,” said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., who represents a prosperous stretch of the Southern California coastline.

Thirteen Republicans opposed the bill — enough for easy passage, but a sea change in tax-cut politics. The 2001 Bush tax cuts, the closest comparison to the current bill, won unanimous support from House Republicans and 13 votes from Democrats. No Democrat voted for the Republicans’ tax bill last week.

Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., who had warned in 2016 that Hillary Clinton would lose Michigan, said that the tax bill would reverse Republicans’ gains. She compared the vote to Democrats’ 1993 passage of a tax hike package, which Republicans unanimously opposed while chanting “bye-bye” to Marjorie Margolies, a suburban Philadelphia Democrat who cast the bill’s deciding vote.

“The Republicans are going to pay a real price,” Dingell said. “Margie voted for that knowing she was going to lose. I don’t think they know they’re going to lose. I don’t think they realize this is going to cost them those seats in the suburbs.”

Democrats such as Dingell paid close attention on Nov. 7. In even high-tax areas, such as New York’s Westchester County, Republican promises of tax relief fell flat. In New Jersey, where Gov.-elect Phil Murphy, a Democrat, won easily, his Republican opponent came out loudly against the GOP’s tax bill.

In Virginia, where the party’s bigger-than-expected wave swept out suburban Republican legislators, Republican gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie pitched a 10 percent “across the board” cut in state tax rates. But according to Geoff Garin, the pollster for Democratic Gov.-elect Ralph Northam’s campaign, the tax plan was “a flop in the suburbs,” which is why Gillespie pivoted — also ineffectively — to attacks on cultural issues.

“First, there simply were not that many suburban voters who felt aggrieved by the amount they are paying in state income taxes,” Garin said. “Second, suburban voters quickly saw Gillespie’s proposed cuts as a dangerous gimmick, and the first question they had about his plan was what programs would have to be cut to pay for it.”

In New Hampshire, Democrats saw the same Republican swoon. In 2017 special elections, Democrats won four state legislative races in Republican-held districts. Just as telling was where they did it — Republican-leaning suburbs.