For Mideast nations in 2018, threats and opportunities Promise and peril in Saudi Arabia
CAIRO» Will 2018 dampen the fires that rage across the Middle East? Although skepticism is understandable, there is a glimmer of change.
The fight against the Islamic State is mostly over, and the war in Syria may be winding down. The region is transitioning from fighting those wars to dealing with their aftermaths — the destruction and dispersal of populations they wrought and the political fallout. Iran’s influence has grown after its proxies generally were successful, and even its nuclear deal with the West remains in place. In rival Saudi Arabia, a youthful new leader is promising long-delayed modernization at home and greater confrontation with Iran in the region. Donald Trump in the White House adds a mercurial element to an exceedingly combustible brew.
Here’s a look at possible inflection points for 2018:
All quiet on the Syrian front?
President Bashar Assad has been embattled since war erupted in Syria almost seven years ago, when his demise was widely predicted in the early going. But it looks like he’ll survive, for now, as the war appears to draw to a close.
Major military operations have tapered, with Assad in control of key areas and the war against the Islamic State mostly concluded with the recapture of the cities it controlled. Bloodshed still lies ahead if Assad tries to seize areas still under rebel control, including some near the capital and in the province of Idlib to the north. But local cease-fires brokered by Russia, Iran and Turkey have significantly reduced the daily carnage that kept Syria in the news.
A phoenix on the Tigris
The war against the Islamic State has been declared over after four years of savagery. The group’s epic abuses — enslaving women, massacring whole populations, grisly killings, mass terrorism — inspired a furious reaction that has left large parts of Iraq in smoldering ruins. The fight by the U.S.-led coalition was grueling in Fallujah, Ramadi, Hawija, Tal Afar and finally Mosul. Whether Iraq can rebuild is a key question for 2018, for only then will Baghdad regain the authority to govern the whole country.
At the heart of the matter are sectarian divisions that bedevil not only Iraq but Syria, Lebanon, and other parts of the region whose borders were mostly drawn by Europeans. The destroyed areas are largely Sunni, while the Baghdad government is Shiite-dominated. If rebuilding efforts fail, the Sunni areas likely will become restive again.
The monarchies of the region — from Morocco to Jordan to the Gulf — were the least affected by the Arab Spring. Perhaps most ossified was Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally and key oil power whose strict Wahhabi interpretation of Islam is blamed by critics for abetting the spread of jihadism worldwide.
Now change appears to be coming, symbolized by the ubiquitous acronym MBS — the widely used nickname for 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who many expect will take over the throne from his father officially in 2018. He has been stumping for a more moderate view of religion and is widely credited with the recent decisions to end the highly contentious, decades-old bans on women driving and cinemas operating.