Fed officials expect economic boost from tax law

WASHINGTON» Federal Reserve policymakers largely agreed last month that the U.S. tax overhaul would likely benefit the economy, but they were split on whether the resulting growth would warrant a faster pace of rate hikes this year.

Minutes of the Fed’s Dec. 12-13 meeting released Wednesday show that officials believed the tax cuts would drive consumer spending and increased business investment, though they expressed uncertainty over the magnitude of the boost.

The minutes indicate disagreement among Fed officials over how many times the Fed should raise its benchmark interest rate in 2018. Some felt that the projection of three rate hikes might prove too aggressive and prevent inflation from returning to the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Others felt more hikes might be needed if any one of a number of risks materialized, including the possibility that inflation might suddenly begin rising at a much faster pace amid cuts in personal and business taxes.

Private economists viewed the minutes as evidence that the pace of inflation will be a key factor determining the number of rate hikes in 2018.

“Inflation has become the most important economic variable steering the Fed’s policy right now and market investors would be well-advised to watch the inflation statistics like a hawk,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.

The minutes covered last month’s discussion, which led to the central bank boosting its key policy rate for a third time in 2017.