The Denver Post

Can anything stop market’s rise?

- By Stan Choe and Marley Jay An unexpected spike in inflation Central banks around the world tightening too quickly • A trade war Expectatio­ns have become too high

It has been 365 days since the Dow Jones industrial average first crossed 20,000, and it’s already up another 30-plus percent as the stock market’s relentless rise to records keeps going.

Few market watchers see a sharp reversal for stocks anytime soon, at least this year. But press them on what could possibly derail the market’s run, and they usually land on a similar list of potential threats.

The warnings come couched with caveats: The general expectatio­n is for stocks to keep rising, albeit at a slower pace, because the odds seem low for a recession this year. Economies around the world are finally in sync and growing together, and the U.S. is getting an extra kick from recently passed tax cuts.

Here’s a look at other potential threats that could trip up what’s been one of the best runs for stocks in history:

Stocks and bonds have ripped higher in recent years as inflation has remained low.

Inflation is still relatively modest, but the job market is at its healthiest in years, and the unemployme­nt rate is at a 17-year low. Theoretica­lly, that should lead to higher wages for workers, which could push inflation higher across the economy.

If inflation picks up faster than the Federal Reserve is expecting, it could force the central bank to raise rates more quickly than it has prepped markets for. Given how expensive stock and bond markets have become, that could trigger turmoil, analysts say.

• It’s not just the Fed that investors are watching closely. Markets are trying to guess when central banks from Europe to Japan will tighten their spigots of stimulus.

The ultra-low interest rates that they have maintained have made it easier for companies and people to borrow. They’ve also pushed many investors into stocks, helping to goose their prices higher.

A big reason for the success of many investors’ 401(k) accounts is how much U.S. companies are benefiting from other countries’ economies doing better. The worry is that a White House led by an “America First” ethos could enact barriers to trade that hurt those sales.

• A real war

“You always worry about geopolitic­al risk,” said Kirk Hartman, global chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Asset Management. “I can’t predict Korea.”

Randy Frederick, vice president of trading & derivative­s at Charles Schwab, said he is starting to worry that investors are becoming too relaxed and too confident that stocks are going to continue to climb without any major obstacles.

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