PHONES

Will iOS 12, expected this fall, give the iPhone 5S the boot? That would cause tension as Apple and Google alike both want to develop features that turn phones into full-fledged computers, but require faster processors in newer models to do it.

There’s likely a limit to how long we’ll hold onto our phones. “I don’t see a replacement cycle getting longer than three years,” Carolina Milanesi, a consumer tech analyst at the firm Creative Strategies, told me.

People holding onto phones longer could make the industry look a lot more like laptops and PCs. But don’t count out desire, Milanesi said. People still upgrade phones as projection of their personality or because they must have the latest whiz-bang tech.

Biju Nir, CEO of HYLA Mobile, which helps the industry collect and repurpose used phones, thinks the replacement cycle will pick up again because of the “FOMO factor.” There’s still a fear of missing out on new innovations, new experiences and new business models from phone makers and network operators, he said. (His firm’s latest data shows the average retiring phone in 2017 had been in use 78 days longer than the year before — now up to a total of 2.59 years.)