North Korea won political gold, but what’s next after Games?
PYEONGCHANG, SOUTH KOREA» North Korea won the political gold at PyeongChang just by showing up. But what’s next?
Kim Jong Un scored some badly needed publicity points by sending his little sister to the games and extending an invitation to South Korean President Moon Jae-in to come to Pyongyang in the near future. And while his athletes are at best an asterisk at the Games, the 229-member strong, allfemale and unabashedly campy cheering squad is the hottest clickbait around.
But actually parlaying photo ops and handshakes into a summit — or a lasting, positive change in the regional security situation — is quite another matter.
The issues that divide the Koreas are all too real. Kim Jong Un, for his newfound interest in cozying up with Seoul, is clinging to his totalitarian leadership, nuclear weapons and missiles as tightly as ever. Here’s a look at how the narrative has shifted and what some of Kim’s next moves might be.
Working the wedge
North Korea’s big fear isn’t South Korea. It’s the United States. By wooing liberals in Seoul, Kim Jong Un is trying to make Washington the odd man out.
The logic is simple: the more direct dealings North and South have, the harder it is for Washington to call the shots. If the North can create a mood of detente, or even of cautious engagement, U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” gets harder to enforce.
Kim’s strategy has started to pay off. A number of sanctions had to be waived just to allow the North’s delegation to come. More importantly, Kim got Moon to push Trump to postpone annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises he sees as a dress rehearsal for invasion. They are now set to be held after the Olympics and Paralympics are over. Sensing the door is ajar, the North is now pushing for them to be abolished altogether.
And as the two Koreas try to work out the details, where would Trump be? As far out of the picture as Kim can keep him.
Shifting the narrative
Vice President Mike Pence went to PyeongChang with a relentless message: The North Korean regime is an immediate threat to the United States, the region and to its own people. There is a lot of support in Seoul and Tokyo for the U.S. position.
But when athletes from both Koreas marched into the Olympic stadium behind a “unification” flag at the Games’ opening ceremony and almost everyone in Moon’s VIP box rose to their feet for an emotional ovation, Pence remained seated, stonefaced. To share his joy, Moon instinctively turned to the dignitary behind him — Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong.
That was the image that went viral. Pence was totally on message, sometimes to his own detriment, and he got hammered for it. Many Koreans saw it as a churlish insult. The Kim-Moon handshake effectively replaced Pence’s narrative with a much more engagement-oriented one. Even Pence seems to be changing his tune — he is reportedly now talking about talks with Pyongyang.