Any summit between Kim, Trump could be good, bad
So President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are planning a summit. What could possibly go wrong?
The two countries haven’t had significant, high-level talks in years and, as White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders emphasized, a meeting between the two leaders themselves could be the fastest way to turn around what has become an increasingly dangerous impasse.
So a lot could go right. It’s a bold, audacious and potentially groundbreaking gambit by both leaders.
But if Trump doesn’t play his cards wisely, and if his decision to accept Kim’s summit offer was as hasty as the details out in public
now suggest, he could risk unnecessarily elevating Kim’s global status, setting up a diplomatic breakdown, and rushing other — possibly military — action to make up for it.
The Associated Press asked three experts what they believe are the major pitfalls ahead.
Here are their thoughts:
Optics, expectations
Summit skeptics generally cite the problem of legitimacy as a main concern.
For Trump, one big trap could be the optics. Does he really want to stand should to shoulder with a leader his administration has denounced as a brutal, ruthless dictator who can’t be trusted? What message does that send? What if Kim insists the summit be held in North Korea’s capital?
“Kim isn’t inviting Trump to relinquish his nuclear weapons. He’s inviting him to be treated as an equal to the United States of America — a goal sought by every Kim since North Korea began its nuclear program,” said Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in nuclear non-proliferation and Asian security.
He said another big point is that while it’s not necessarily so hard to simply set up a summit, going from no contact at all to the contacts at the highest level in such a
U.S.-South Korea military exercises still on.
As the White House prepares for what could be the first meeting between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader, the U.S. and South Korean militaries will carry out exercises that Pyongyang has long called provocative but now appears to accept.
South Korean national security adviser Chung Eui-yong announced Thursday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “understands that the routine joint military exercises between the Republic of Korea and the United States must continue.”
The latter acknowledgment marked a significant shift for the Kim regime. Each spring, the United States and South Korea launch military exercises and the Kim regime has span of time — the summit is supposedly to take place before May — can make it hard to gauge what accomplishments are realistic and what isn’t.
“Trump will want North Korea to commit to complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization right then and there,” Narang said. “It won’t. The North will want the U.S. to commit to ending the hostile policy in totality. It won’t. And both sides walk away with nothing.”
Doing the homework
The White House says the seemingly sudden decision to hold the summit reflects Trump’s bold, shootfrom-the-hip style.
But Suzanne DiMaggio, who helped facilitate the first official discussions between the Trump administration and North Korean government representatives in Oslo last year, said she is concerned by the apparent lack of lower-level groundwork that usually paves the way for summits could cause big problems.
DiMaggio, of the Washington-based New America Foundation, directs what’s called the “track two” channel of unofficial talks between the U.S. and North Korea and is one of the few Americans with experience talking to and negotiating with the North.
“Engaging an adversary with whom we’ve had scant communications over many years presents especially difficult challenges,” she warned. “A hollowedout State Department only amplifies the magnitude of typically reacted angrily. The exercises there are seen as preparation for an attack on Pyongyang, while the South Koreans and Americans characterize them as defensive in nature.
Last year, North Korea fired four ballistic missiles toward Japan in what was widely seen as a response to the exercises. The North Korean military already had warned that if a single shell fell in waters near the Korean Peninsula, it would immediately launch counteractions.
The exercises are believed to include rehearsals of what is known as OPLAN 5015, in which U.S. and South Korean forces would carry out “decapitation” strikes aimed at killing Kim and other senior members of his regime. the challenges. This, combined with President Trump’s infamous penchant for going off script and his admiration of authoritarian types, could weaken our negotiating position.”
The summit announcement comes as the U.S. still has no ambassador in South Korea. Joseph Yun, the U.S. special representative for North Korea and one of America’s most experienced North Korea experts, recently retired.
Adam Mount, a senior fellow and director of the Defense Posture Project of the Federation of American Scientists, said North Koshort rea could put a reasonable deal on the table that Trump feels unable to accept. That could lead other regional players — particularly China — to decide that Pyongyang is not the problem.
“Unfortunately, he said, “this possibility is made easier by accepting the invitation prior to the customary staff work that usually precedes a summit.”
Avoiding a flameout
Even without major, game-changing breakthroughs, simply establishing a viable channel of communication and a baseline relationship could make it easier to defuse future tensions before they get out of hand.
So taking things slowly isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
But if Trump goes into the summit looking for a huge, game-changing breakthrough and comes up short, he could find himself with few options for a next step.
“If Trump goes at all, and expects to announce a denuclearized North Korea, he will leave disappointed and maybe angry enough to believe that talks are useless and only military options are left,” Narang warned.
Without a lot more clarity going into the summit, he added, it could fall through in the worst way.
“There is enough wiggle room on both sides for either side to back out,” he said. “In my view, workinglevel dialogue is the most promising way forward. No talks and zooming straight to a Kim Jong Un-Donald J. Trump summit are both likely to end badly.”