Revenue forecasts key to budget deal on transportation, schools

Strong consumer spending, coupled with a booming stock market, the federal tax code overhaul and a resurgent oil and gas industry are projected to grow the Colorado state general fund by as much as $1.29 billion next fiscal year, raising hopes that lawmakers this session will make major investments in the state’s two most glaring needs — transportation and schools.

The two quarterly revenue forecasts released Monday by the governor’s office and the Colorado Legislative Council both project a significant boost to tax collections this fiscal year and next, leaving the state with more than

$500 million more to spend than economists expected during the most recent forecasts three months ago.

The March forecasts take on special significance, because they are the numbers that state lawmakers will use in crafting the 2018-19 state budget, which the Joint Budget Committee is expected to finish drafting as soon as this week.

The political fight that lies ahead is unlike any that lawmakers have encountered since before the Great Recession. After years of difficult decisions on what public services to cut, budget writers this year instead have to decide which item on their wish list gets the biggest boost. And lawmakers and interest groups wasted no time Monday offering their two cents on how the money should be spent.

Republicans and transportation advocates want to tack Colorado’s $9 billion infrastructure problem; public school superintendents and teachers want more money in classrooms; Democrats want both, plus investments in affordable housing; and the governor wants to set some of the money aside to build a larger state reserve.

The two forecasts offer similar pictures of the Colorado economy — so similar that Sen. Kent Lambert, R-Colorado Springs, joked that budget writers should “flip a coin” to decide which to use. The biggest difference is how fast the money comes in.

The governor’s forecast expects an additional $309.3 million in general fund revenue this fiscal year, which ends June 30, and $207.3 million more next year, relative to the last forecast. Overall, the general fund would grow 12.9 percent this year — or $1.3 billion — vs. last, and another 3.2 percent in 2018-19, for a total general fund of $13.1 billion.

The legislative council forecast expects this year’s general fund to grow 11.3 percent, or $982.7 million, vs. a year ago. Next year it would grow another 8.2 percent, or $1.29 billion over this year’s budget, to a total general fund of $13 billion.

That difference in timing could push the state up against the spending cap imposed by the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, triggering an $8.9 million surplus next year under the legislative council forecast, and $156.4 million in 2019-20 — a surprising development after lawmakers bought themselves more room under the spending cap through legislation last year. Under that legislation, Senate Bill 267, the surplus would be refunded to local governments to reimburse the cost of a property tax exemption for seniors, instead of going out to state taxpayers.

Both forecasts cite rising wages and consumer spending in their optimistic economic view. In January, the state’s unemployment claims dropped to their lowest level since September 2000. The forecasts also cite rising gas prices and production as a new bright spot in the state’s already robust economy. After oil dipped to $36.67 per barrel in 2016, the price has climbed steadily over the last two years, and legislative economists now expect it to reach $66.12 by 2020.

“Today’s optimistic fiscal forecast confirms what we have been saying since the beginning of the session, which is that we have more than enough new revenue to jump-start a major statewide road rebuilding effort, using existing dollars, while still adequately funding education and other budget priorities,” Senate President Kevin Grantham, R-Cañon City, said in a statement.

But Hickenlooper, a Democrat, continued to push back against Republican plans to issue longterm transportation bonds against existing state revenue. He’s concerned that much of the growth is one-time money — a windfall driven by a jump in capital gains paid by investors who are selling off record-high stocks in the wake of federal tax cuts — and the rest could be unsustainable.

Rep. Millie Hamner, the budget committee chairwoman, shared Hickenlooper’s cautious tone.

“These forecasts are good news for Colorado, but we have to be mindful of the long-term uncertainty,” said Hamner, D-Dillon. “And with so much pent-up need, we still have hard choices to make.”

In a letter to the budget committee, Hickenlooper suggested one-time infusions of cash next year for the state’s top priorities, in lieu of long-term spending commitments. His budget request now calls for $500 million for transportation projects — more than doubling the $248 million he previously proposed — and an additional $200 million for schools. He’s also calling for $100 million to reduce the so-called “negative factor” — an $828 million annual gap between what the state is supposed to spend on schools and what it actually does.

Both quarterly revenue forecasts were delivered to the Joint Budget Committee with a note of caution: Economists said there’s more risk in the forecasts than usual, due to rising global political instability, increasing interest rates and the chance that the economy may be due for a downturn after eight years of growth.

“The number of moving parts policywise in the world right now might be as many as we’ve had to deal with in the last five to 10 years,” said Henry Sobanet, the budget director for Gov. John Hickenlooper. “And they all seem to interrelate. So it’s hard to make one decision about one priority area without knowing what might be in the offing for another issue.”