CU, CSU have no shot at conference titles
The Colorado Buffaloes and Colorado State Rams enter the 2018 football season with renewed hopes for conference championships, but if ESPN’s Football Power Index is any indication, it will be another long and arduous season for both programs.
The FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN. Results are based on “10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
The preseason prognosis for CU and CSU? Not good.
The Buffs are ranked No. 79 nationally in the FPI with a projected win total of 4.1 — a decline from CU’s five victories a year ago. The Buffs were also given zero percent chance of winning the Pac-12.
The Rams check in at No. 105 on the list, but with slightly higher expectations. CSU is projected to
Preseason FPI
Here’s a look at how the Pac-12 and Mountain West shake out on ESPN’s preseason FPI. PAC-12
FPI rank; Team; Projected wins; Probability to win conference title
6; Washington; 10.6; 51.6% 13; Stanford; 8.4; 10%
15; USC; 8.7; 25.4%
23; Oregon; 8.3; 3.8%
27; California; 7.7; 2.7% 32; Utah; 6.9; 2.5%
42; Arizona; 7.4; 0.5%
48; UCLA; 5; 0.5%
51; Arizona State; 5.2; 0% 52; Washington State; 6.1; 0% 79; Colorado; 4.1; 0%
100; Oregon State; 2.2; 0% finish with 4.3 victories, which would end the program’s streak of five consecutive bowl games. The Rams are given a 0.3 percent chance to win the Mountain West.
Just how accurate is the FPI forecast? ESPN performed a self-audit of its 2017 predictions for 780 college football games and discovered the average Mountain West
FPI rank; Team; Projected wins; Probability to win conference title
37; Boise State; 10; 55.1% 59; San Diego State; 8.5; 18.5% 63; Fresno State; 7.6; 12.9% 71; Utah State; 8; 6.9%
85; Nevada, 6.8; 3.1%
87; Wyoming; 6.4; 2.4% 101; Air Force; 4.8; 0.3% 102; UNLV; 5.8; 0.4%
105; Colorado State; 4.8; 0.3% 114; New Mexico; 3.9; 0% 119; San Jose State; 3.2; 0% margin of victory was 12.4 points different than their predicted margin of error, so by no means is it a perfect science. Yet it’s clear the national outlook on CU and CSU’s upcoming seasons is grim.