Everything you need to know about the Avalanche-Predators series — and more.
The No. 1 seed against No. 8 isn’t always a sure thing for the top team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since 2006, four No. 8 seeds have advanced to the conference finals, and one of those teams — the 2012 Los Angeles Kings — won the Stanley Cup. And another, the 2006 Edmonton Oilers, lost in the Stanley Cup Final.
So it won’t be a complete shock if the No. 8 Avalanche finds a way to eliminate the No. 1 Nashville Predators in their upcoming Western Conference first-round series. Making it more difficult on the Avs is this: The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Preds are experts with the No. 1-vs.-No. 8 scenario, having advanced to the Stanley Cup Final a year ago as the conference’s No. 8 seed. They certainly won’t overlook Colorado.
“The difference between No. 1 and No. 16 is not that big, as the case may be in other sports,” Nashville defenseman Mattias Ekholm told The Tennessean. “That’s what’s so exciting about hockey, too. Anyone can win. It’s a game of small details and small moments.”
Whatever happens in the Avs-Preds series, Colorado wants to follow in Nashville’s footsteps next season, going from a team that barely got into the playoffs to a team that finishes with the NHL’s most points and are considered Stanley Cup contenders.
Offense
This is where you’ll find the closest Avalanche-Predators comparison. Nashville is eighth in NHL scoring at 3.18 goals-per game, and Colorado is 10th at 3.11. The difference is the Preds create offense by committee and the Avs count on their top line for much of their scoring. The Avs have two players in the top 17 in league scoring with linemates Nathan MacKinnon (97 points) and Mikko Rantanen (84), and the Preds have none in the top 30. Filip Forsberg leads Nashville with 64 points, with five others producing more than 50 (the Avs have only two). Colorado can keep up with Nashville if MacKinnon, Rantanen and left winger Gabe Landeskog carry the load — which is the primary reason the Avs are even in the playoffs. Edge: Even.
Defense
Nashville is second in the NHL in goalsagainst average (2.49), behind the Los Angeles Kings (2.69). Colorado is a distant 14th (tied with Philadelphia at 2.88). The Avs’ best defense is a great offense, because they don’t defend nearly as well as the Preds, who are believed to have the deepest blueline in the league. Team captain Roman Josi is paired with Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and P.K. Subban are on the second pairing, and Alexei Emelin and Matt Irwin on the third. The Avs simply can’t match that. Colorado picked up three of its top-six defensemen on waivers — Mark Barberio from Montreal, Patrik Nemeth from Dallas and Mark Alt from Philadelphia. That’s not to say they aren’t good D-men. But none of them probably would be candidates to play in Nashville’s top-six. Edge: Nashville.
Goaltending
The Preds’ Pekka Rinne is a Vezina Trophy candidate as the NHL’s top goalie, having finished the regular season fifth in goals-against average (2.31) and tied for sixth in save percentage (.927). Jonathan Bernier (2.85, .913, 19 wins) has been good for Colorado, but Nashville gets the big nod in goaltending because of Rinne’s health and the injuries to the Avs’ Semyon Varlamov, who is considered their No. 1 guy. Edge: Nashville.
Special teams
Colorado’s power play and special teams have been sensational at home, but about average on the road. Overall, the Avs are eighth on the power play (21.9 percent) and fourth in penalty killing (83.3 percent). The Preds are tied for 12th on the PP (21.2) and sixth in PK (81.9). If the Avs don’t capitalize on special teams, they won’t last long. Edge: Colorado.
Coaching
There’s no comparison in experience here. Nashville’s Peter Laviolette is in his 16th year as an NHL coach and the Avs’ Jared Bednar is in his second. Laviolette has led his teams to the playoffs nine times, including winning it all in 2006 with the Carolina Hurricanes. This is his best team, based on the Preds’ 53 wins thus far — one more than the Hurricanes won the 2005-06 regular season. Bednar is entering his first NHL postseason, but he has coached teams to ECHL and American Hockey League championships, the latter in 2016 with the Lake Erie Monsters, which springboarded him to become Patrick Roy’s successor with the Avs. Edge: Nashville.
Prediction
Predators in five or six. The Avs are huge underdogs in Games 1 and 2 at Nashville, and rightfully so. The Preds are a rock-solid team and coming off a run to the Stanley Cup Final last year, and they don’t need to introduce new fans to playoff hockey. Bridgestone Arena will serve as a significant advantage for the Preds, who went 289-4 at home during the regular season.