Cooler heads needed as we enter New Cold War
As growing tensions define current U.s.-russian relations, it is hard to deny the signals that we are moving toward a New Cold War.
Consider Russia’s actions, including: 2008 military intervention in Georgia and 2014 in Ukraine, culminating in the annexation of Crimea, the first forcible change of borders in Europe since 1945; its Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) violations; its 2015 military intervention in Syria; and its nerve agent attack on a former spy in Britain, which Prime Minister Theresa May said was “the first offensive use of a nerve agent in Europe since the Second World War.”
Consider also NATO’S expansion up to the Russian border, and the U.S. national security strategy unveiled in December 2017, which reveals that Russia is “using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies,” and that Russia and China are trying to “challenge American power, influence and interests” and “attempting to erode American security and prosperity.” The document warns against “engagement” with these rivals, for the belief that they should be turned into “benign actors and trustworthy partners” had been proved wrong.
Russia has always decried the west’s military action in Libya and U.S. adventurism in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Russia, defending its ally Bashar Al-assad, has called the joint missile strikes by the U.S., Britain, and France at chemical weapons storage and research facilities in Syria in response to the chemical attack by the Syrian government on the town of Douma a “violation of international law.”
In addition, Britain and its allies, including the U.S., expelled Russian diplomats, Russia retaliated tit-for-tat, and there have been sanctions and counter-sanctions by both parties. A new arms race seems to be in the offing, as President Vladimir Putin announced sophisticated new nuclear weapons and the U.S. plans a costly program of nuclear modernization.
Undoubtedly, the situation of the Cold War era following WWII and up to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union was markedly different from today. No longer is Russia a superpower. Then the two superpowers were basically in parity in economic and military terms. They were in a struggle for ideological supremacy – the liberal capitalism versus Marxism-leninism. The Soviet Union sought global revolution, and both sides fought proxy wars all over the world.
Today’s world is no longer bi-polar, as the United States still remains the most powerful country in the world. And if ever the world does become bi-polar again, it will be China, not Russia, as the other pole. There is no ideological confrontation between Russia and the U.S. Putin is an authoritarian nationalist who is primarily concerned with staying in power and gaining international standing and respect for Russia. Although Putin wants to be a global player, his sights are currently focused on safeguarding Russia’s borders and seeking dominance in the region.
Russia is weaker militarily (just over 4 percent of total global military spending, compared with U.S. spending of 36 percent, although Russia is modernizing its military and has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons). It is also economically weaker, with about 8 percent of America’s GDP. But Russia still plays the disrupter to the post-war global world order, as it has attempted to in democratic elections not just in the US but in many countries in Europe, and has endeavored to spread misinformation and sow discord through internet trolls, hacked emails, and fake Facebook accounts. Russia’s global activism is aimed at challenging American power and what it calls US hegemony, accusing the US of encroaching on its vital interests.
What can be done to avoid a major military confrontation through miscalculation or inadvertence? Negotiating a few ground rules will be necessary. An important step already recommended is to make Eastern Europe a Zone of Peace. Also, there must be a halt to further NATO expansion and accommodation and compromises are needed on Ukraine. Most important, cooler heads must prevail.
Ved Nanda is Distinguished University Professor and Director of the Ved Nanda Center for International Law at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law. His column appears the last Sunday of each month and he welcomes comments at vnanda@law.du.edu.