Metro Denver’s economy larger than New Zealand’s
Understanding where a local economy fits in the larger scheme of things can be hard without some points of reference, so here are a few, compliments of the United States Conference of Mayors.
Metro Denver’s economy is as large as that of New Zealand’s, while Colorado Springs’ is slightly larger than that of North Korea’s. Boulder has an economic output comparable to Nepal, Fort Collins to Laos and Greeley to Armenia.
As for the state’s smallest metros, Grand Junction and Pueblo, think Mauritania and Fiji.
Those are some of the comparisons made in the Metro Economies Report, released Friday as part of the conference of mayors’ annual meeting in Boston.
Economists with IHS Markit, who crunched the numbers for the mayors, forecast the U.S. economy will grow at 2.8 percent in 2018 and 2019, its best showing since 2015 and a pace that metro Denver will match.
Going into 2020, they predict higher interest rates and higher fuel prices and that the waning stimulus from tax cuts will act to slow growth, including in Colorado.
Given who is behind the study, the report goes out of its way to highlight the importance of urban areas. The 10 largest metro areas in the U.S. generate more economic activity than 37 states, including Colorado.
The sum of Colorado’s economic output — at $341.1 billion last year — doesn’t exceed that of Seattle’s $357.5 billion or Atlanta’s $384.3 billion, although it edges out Miami’s $340.9 billion.
And there is no disputing that Colorado’s cities drive the state’s economy. Imagine Colorado’s economy as a $100 bar tab divided among friends who start digging into their pockets to pay at closing time. Metro Denver slaps down a credit card to cover $61.10 of that tab, while metro Colorado Springs comes up with $9.60. Boulder County contributes $7.40 and Fort Collins/ Larimer County drops a $5 bill. Greeley/ Weld County comes up with $3.60, while Grand Junction and Pueblo sheepishly chip in $1.60 and a $1.50, respectively.
As for the farmers and ranchers, ski resort operators and coal miners populating the vast rest of Colorado, they collect $10.20 toward the tab, even though they didn’t drink that much, given they had a long ride home.
Metro Denver generated economic activity of $209.4 billion last year, which ranks 18th among metro areas in the U.S. It is expected to generate $221.5 billion this year and $233.9 billion in 2019.
Metro Denver had been a leader for job gains nationally, but the forecast calls for it to lose momentum, in part because there aren’t enough workers left to fill openings. The report expects job growth for metro Denver to slow from a 2.2 percent pace this year to only a 1 percent pace by 2022.
Despite that, the unemployment rate is expected to hold below 3 percent, even as a larger share of the adult population jumps back into the job market.