Hickenlooper has set his sights on 2020; could he be president?

John Hickenlooper says he’s considering a presidential run for 2020. Given his statements of interest and trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, it appears he’s mostly decided. Although the Democratic race is wide open, Hickenlooper is not in the first tier. In fact, he’s not even on some lists of 15 or 20 top candidates. He doesn’t have a national profile beyond being the governor of a small western state that’s most famous for legalized marijuana. Nor does he represent one of the power interest groups in the party or have great personal wealth.

Yet, not being part of the party establishment is one of his appealing qualities. If the party turns to one of its moderate governors for president (or vice president), Hickenlooper is wellpositioned. He’s not alone in that group. The governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, is on the list, along with former governors Terry Mcauliffe (Virginia) and Deval Patrick (Massachusetts), as well as mayors of Los Angeles and New Orleans (former).

The Democratic Party has a track record of picking dark horse governors, including Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992. Both parties have swung wide in the last two presidencies with Barack Obama, a first term U.S. senator from Illinois, and Donald Trump, an unprecedented outsider from New York.

Hickenlooper’s business background and moderate nonpartisan tone have helped him govern Colorado and maintain a reasonable level of approval. But, moderation tends to be a handicap in the national Democratic Party’s nominating process, which is highly dominated by vocal special interest groups. He doesn’t express the anger and outrage that characterizes most presidential politics today.

Also, Hickenlooper has never been in a Democratic primary fight. He was more or less appointed the governor nominee by the Democratic power structure in 2010 when then Gov. Bill Ritter decided not to pursue a second term. He started his political career in 2003 as Denver’s nonpartisan (mostly Democrat) mayor in a multi-person runoff as an unconventional businessman with a quirky campaign.

Hickenlooper won two general elections for governor during good Republican years, but in the first, the Republican Party selfdestructed when its frontrunner, former U.S. Rep. Scott Mcinnis, lost the primary in an upset to a novice, Daniel Maes, and an independent, former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, mounted a thirdparty race and received more than one-third of the final vote.

Hickenlooper’s luck held in his 2014 re-election, another good year for Republicans, but a divided Republican Party went to an establishment figure, former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, who was never able to take advantage of Hickenlooper’s election year missteps. In both wins, Hickenlooper didn’t break 51 percent of the electorate.

His moderate business background affected his 2016 quest for a vice presidential slot when he was heckled in Philadelphia by anti-fracking forces that targeted him for his balanced administration of oil and gas and opposition to anti-fracking ballot initiatives.

He may be a long shot for a presidential bid, but Hickenlooper is a frontrunner for the nomination to take on Sen. Cory Gardner in 2020. Circumstances may change, but the D.C. Democratic establishment will target Gardner and see Hickenlooper as a strong candidate. However, that move won’t be without obstacles given Colorado’s apparent shift to the left and the likelihood there will be plenty of local Democrats ready to compete against an incumbent who, as of today, appears vulnerable.

Hickenlooper has said a presidential race looks like fun. Well, maybe. There’s a lot of fundraising, not one of his favorite activities, and his aversion to negative campaigns won’t withstand the intense partisan environment of D.C. But, Hickenlooper’s moderate temperament and “let’s get the job done” message may be welcomed by many in the party after weathering the Trump wars.

Floyd Ciruli is a pollster, political analyst and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver.