Run differential not a negative
Renowned analyst Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball is based on the idea that runs scored comparative to runs allowed — i.e., run differential — is a more accurate indicator of a team’s future performance than its current winning percentage.
But the Rockies (71-60, one back in the division and 1K back of the second wild card) are spitting in the face of James’ formula with a minus-14 run differential heading into Tuesday night’s series finale in Anaheim, making them the only National League team in the playoff race with a negative differential.
According to the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, Rockies players should already be thinking about booking October family vacations. The Rockies’ expected current record by the formula is 64-67, which would make them nine games out in the West and 8K out in the wild card — essentially out of the race.
“I heard once from a wise baseball man: ‘Numbers don’t always tell the truth,’ ” said manager Bud Black. “And as we get deeper in the race, and keep playing tough, I think those (differential) numbers will improve.”
Still, right now, the Rockies are making a playoff push amid rare company. Since the divisional era began in 1969, only four teams have made the postseason with a negative run differential — the most recent being the 2007 Diamondbacks, who owned the National League’s best record despite 20 fewer total runs than their opponents.
Colorado’s success in the face of its poor differential is also a product of one overarching theme of the season: being the club tends to turn in dramatic wins along with ugly losses. The Rockies are 22-13 in one-run games, a .629 winning percentage that’s second in the NL, but have also yielded double-digit runs in 14 defeats this season — most of those blowouts.
But that doesn’t matter at the end of the day, second baseman DJ LeMahieu said. Colorado is firmly in the race despite a negative differential — which stands in stark contrast to that of the Diamondbacks (+83) and Dodgers (+121) — reaffirms where the club’s priorities lie.
“Could care less about (run differential),” LeMahieu said. “We care about the W.”
Colorado’s continuing RISP struggles.
Despite LeMahieu’s momentumshifting grand slam in the 10-7 loss to the Angels on Monday, Colorado finished 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position in the game while stranding ten to continue the club’s recent bad habit of not capitalizing on offensive opportunities.
In August, Colorado is hitting .235 (48-for-204) with runners in scoring position, the fourth-worst average in the majors. Further splits highlight deeper issues, too: The Rockies’ average with two outs in the situation is .226, fifthworst in the NL, and their .091 average with no outs in the situation is the worst in all of baseball.
“It just comes down to we’ve just got to do it,” catcher Chris Iannetta said. “There’s ups and downs, and we’re going through a stretch where we’re on the lower end of that (RISP success). The answer isn’t trying harder. You’ve got to find ways.”
Black noted a change in the collective team approach with runners in scoring position isn’t needed.
“We’ve just got to keep at it, knowing that if we have good at-bats and a good approach and we know the situation — what’s in front of us as far as the pitcher and having a quality at-bat — we’ll see the numbers turn a little bit going forward,” Black said.
Young Jr. keeps overcoming adversity.
Ex-Rockies utilityman Eric Young Jr. did damage to his former club on Monday, flaring a two-RBI single off Seunghwan Oh for his first career go-ahead hit with his team trailing in the eighth inning or later.
Young Jr., a 2003 Colorado draft pick who came up through the Rockies’ minor league system and played outfield and second base in LoDo from 2009-13, has been up and down from the minor leagues over the past four seasons and was most recently called up from Triple-A Salt Lake on July 27.
The journeyman who has also played with the Yankees, Mets and Braves is hitting .235 with eight RBIs in 25 games since his promotion, and also filled in adequately for Mike Trout early last season when the all-star was on the disabled list.
He said his passion for baseball continues to drive his grind, even when other veteran ballplayers in a similar spot would have hung up the spikes by now.
“I love the game, and I respect the game,” Young Jr. said. “It’s not in me to quit when some adversity is present, because that’s the name of the game — if you can show up when the odds are stacked against you. That’s the main motivation that allows me to go out there, is because I still love to play, and mainly because I know I still have a lot to offer out there.”
The 33-year-old also said his life perspective shifted — and his appreciation for every opportunity elevated — ever since he and his wife, Victoria, went through the loss of their first child, Eric Young III, in January 2017 after he was born three months premature.
“We’re stronger than ever right now,” Young Jr. said. “We definitely leaned on each other during that time, leaned on our parents, and still do to this day. That’s not something that’s ever just going to go away.”