Predicting the eye from Colorado

Staring intently at the computer models spewing what some call a myriad of “spaghetti plots,” the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder are among the first to predict just how serious a developing storm such as Hurricane Florence might be.

Compiling data from a variety of sources, the highresolution models quickly predict if East Coasters will have to merely batten down the hatches or head for the hills.

Their work is largely research, the early stages of what eventually becomes leadingedge climatology at other NOAA stations nationwide and the National Weather Service.

“It nailed the Harvey forecast,” said Theo Stein, a spokesperson for NOAA’s David Skaggs Research Center, where the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh system is located, phonetically called “HERR.” “Every hour, it ingests a boatload of data, constantly forecasting with the latest data, but it’s only a 36hour window and only in the continental U.S.”

That means, for now, the predictions that will tighten with each moment Hurricane Florence moves toward landfall.

Their work helps the NWS issue its own predictions, warnings and other pertinent information. It’s educated guesswork that gets smarter with each passing storm.

Up the road from the Boulder facility, in the northeast sector of the Colorado State University campus in Fort Collins, sits a team of scientists known for their annual predictions of what we can expect from each hurricane season. It’s a team within the Department of Atmospheric Science that often simplifies its predictions to a pair of events: El Niño and La Niña.

When El Niño is active — with warmwater temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean — the Atlantic hurricane season tends to be less active. The reverse is true when La Niña is the case.

This year’s hurricane report, which in April predicted 2018’s season would be above average, is most accurate in August after a number of weather factors and data are compiled and studied. This year’s early forecast was eventually tempered to one of belowaverage predictions, or a pretty tepid hurricane season.

Then Florence showed up. On her tail, though still far at sea, is Tropical Storm Isaac and Hurricane Helene.

“Hurricane Florence, this is a very dangerous, lifethreatening storm that will not only bring damaging winds to the Carolina coast, but will also dump massive amounts of precipitation as the storm slows down and lingers over the Carolinas and Virginia over the weekend,” said Matthew Rogers, with CSU’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

The institute works hand in hand with NOAA, sporting a group that develops new experimental hurricane tracking products.