WHAT STAPLETON MUST DO TO WIN GOVERNOR’S RACE
Walker Stapleton wants to make history this fall and become the state’s second Republican governor in 45 years.
To do it, the state’s twoterm treasurer will have to buck state demographic trends and a national mood that both favor Democrats.
Colorado, a swing state in modern history, has been gradually drifting to the left. Since 2014, the last gubernatorial race, the Colorado Democratic Party has added 63,000 voters to its base — Republicans have added just 4,600. In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won the state by 5 percentage points. And this year, unaffiliated voters, who were allowed to vote in the state’s primary for the first time, overwhelmingly flocked toward the Democrats.
Those data points, coupled with Democratic voters’ scorn of President Donald Trump, have political observers on both sides of the aisle saying the election is U.S. Rep. Jared Polis’ to lose.
Still, Stapleton can win, Republican pollsters, communication specialists and observers said last week. To do so, they said, three things must happen: Stapleton’s allies must step up with negative ads that make Polis, a wealthy businessman from Boulder, unattractive to enough unaffiliated voters. Stapleton must immediately begin to introduce himself to the general electorate and provide solutions to their problems. And outside groups supporting Stapleton must execute a sophisticated ground game that rebuffs any national “blue wave.”
“These elections are historically close,” said Cinnamon Watson, a Republican communication strategist and cofounder of BluePrint Strategies. “The winner is going to have to break through and really define themselves. The climate is tough out there for Republicans, but I think Colorado has been an independent state, and the voters are willing to listen to the candidates.”
Sustain attacks against Polis
Since the beginning of his campaign, Stapleton has attacked Polis as being too liberal for Colorado. His charge has been amplified by the Republican Governors Association, which has so far invested $2.9 million, mostly on television ads to attack Polis.
“Colorado is a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans, and you will continue to see the RGA
invest in this race,” Jon Thompson, spokesman for the RGA, said in a statement. “Our polling shows this race is a dead heat and will remain competitive until Election Day.”
The message from RGA and other Stapleton backers is that of Polis as an outoftouch millionaire who creates one set of rules but plays by another. They’ve also suggested that his policies — especially his support for universal health care — are too liberal for voters.
The effectiveness of those ads, which included the new term “Radicalifornia,” is unclear.
David Flaherty, a Republican pollster, said the first negative attack ads against Polis after the primary election were “misguided.”
“It’s just not strong enough, it’s just not sustained enough,” he said, adding that more recent attack ads with more specific claims that Polis hasn’t paid taxes and has used an offshore bank account were more likely to resonate with voters. The Denver Post and other fact checkers have found those claims to be misleading or false.
“Ultimately this is a contrast game,” said Kelly Maher, executive director of Compass Colorado, a political nonprofit that advocates for conservative causes. “Jared Polis is far out of the mainstream on a number of issues. He’s trying to paint himself as John Hickenlooper, and he’s not.”
Polis’ campaign has repeatedly rebuffed the GOP’S attacks, including by taking out its own ad attacking the attack ads.
“Stapleton doesn’t have any real ideas or plans to help Coloradans get ahead, and he definitely doesn’t want to talk about his record of failure as treasurer, so he spends his time trying to tear down Jared Polis with a false narrative,” said Eric Walker, spokesman for Colorado’s Democratic Party.
Define Stapleton to the electorate
Stapleton allies’ ads attacking Polis won’t be enough to win him the governor’s mansion. Stapleton, who has won state office twice, still must reintroduce himself to the general electorate and share his solutions to the problems voters care most about.
That means running positive television ads with money his campaign doesn’t have yet.
“Walker’s campaign needs money,” Flaherty said. “It’s tough for him to get his message out.”
Stapleton, who before being elected state treasurer ran his family’s real estate business, has so far raised about $2.9 million, including $1 million from himself. The Republican’s personal fortune and fundraising chops, which raised eyebrows before the primary election, pale next to the $18 million Polis has spent on the race so far.
“In any other universe,” Maher said, “Walker Stapleton would have the resources to make the case for himself.”
Part of the effort of selling his candidacy must include solutions to the state’s thorniest issues, such as education funding, health care costs and the state’s growing pains. And the people he needs to win over are unaffiliated voters.
Stapleton’s team has begun to issue more detailed policy proposals. Just before Labor Day, Stapleton released a education plan that called for paying teachers more and creating a tax holiday for families during the backtoschool season. On Tuesday, the campaign released its health care platform that would seek to better expand mental health services, rein in Medicaid spending and allow for lowercost insurance plans, including some providing less coverage.
“We’ll continue to roll out policies that will make life better for Coloradans without taxing them another $100 billion,” said Michael Fortney, Stapleton’s campaign manager.
As for when the campaign’s first positive ads will air? The first week of October.
Get out the vote
The blue wave in response to the Trump administration, local Republicans concede, is real and is a threat to their candidates. Republicans should “pray, pray, pray” for low turnout, Flaherty said.
However, there’s reason to believe Stapleton could be protected from such a nationwide movement. The man Stapleton wants to replace, termlimited Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, survived two red waves in 2010 and 2014.
“If Colorado gubernatorial races were won and lost on national waves, we’d have Governor Dan Maes, or Governor Bob Beauprez,” Fortney said, referring to Hickenlooper’s Republican opponents.
“Colorado voters are easi ly able to differentiate between the national wave and federal elections and the governor’s election,” Fortney said.
“We’re talking to all Coloradans that are interested in keeping this state great and finding commonsense solutions — and that obviously includes unaffiliated voters and pragmatic Democrats.”
A number of unaffiliated organizations that support Stapleton and conservative issues will help the Republican nominee push back against Democratic enthusiasm on the ground.
“The people making the biggest case for Walker Stapleton are not going to be Walker Stapleton,” Maher said.
This year, Americans For Prosperity, a conservative political nonprofit established by businessman Charles and David Koch, took the unprecedented step of endorsing Stapleton. That endorsement means the network’s supporters will be out knocking on doors attempting to convince unaffiliated voters to support Stapleton.
“It was easy to make the decision that we had to be involved,” said Jesse Mallory, the organization’s state director.
There will also be droves of volunteers walking to defeat a ballot initiative that would prohibit oil and gas drilling from taking place within 2,500 feet of a home, school or park. Observers suggested that effort will bring out Republican and unaffiliated voters who lean right in higher numbers than usual.
Most of those door knocks are likely to take place where crucial unaffiliated voters are clustered, including Jefferson, Arapahoe and Larimer counties.
“There’s a number of unaffiliated voters who haven’t made up their mind,” Watson said. “And it’s game on for both camps. It will come down to the execution of a really good ground game.”