GOP stunned by tax cut response
The American public is, shall we say, less than perfectly informed about matters of politics and policy. For instance, people believe that foreign aid makes up a huge portion of the federal budget, when in truth it accounts for less than 1 percent of federal spending. Indeed, if voters were all wellinformed, you’d barely need campaigns at all, since people who pay lots of attention to politics and understand issues are almost impervious to the persuasive efforts of 30second ads and inflammatory mailers.
But every once in a while, the public will actually figure something out on their own and come to an accurate conclusion about a policy. When this happens, one party or the other is bound to be deeply disappointed that their efforts at mass hornswoggling have failed.
This is the position Republicans now find themselves in, as Bloomberg’s Sahil Kapur and Joshua Green report:
“A survey commissioned by the Republican National Committee has led the party to a glum conclusion regarding President Donald Trump’s signature legislative achievement: Voters overwhelmingly believe his tax overhaul helps the wealthy instead of average Americans.
“By a 2to1 margin — 61 percent to 30 percent — respondents said the law benefits “large corporations and rich Americans” over “middle class families,” according to the survey, which was completed on Sept. 2 by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by Bloomberg News.
This information is contained in a slide under the title, “But, we’ve lost the messaging battle on the issue.” Indeed they have — they lost both to the Democrats, and to reality.
The reality is not in dispute. Around twothirds of the benefits of the tax cuts went to those in the top quintile of taxpayers, with about 20 percent of the benefits going to the richest 1 percent. By 2025, when the cuts are fully phased in, the top 1 percent will get 25 percent of the benefits. The centerpiece of the plan, furthermore, was a gigantic corporate tax cut. Republicans promised that this cut would produce a wave of investment and wage increases for workers, but so far the only wave that has resulted is a tsunami of stock buybacks benefiting wealthy shareholders, which is exactly what liberals predicted.
Those facts are available to anyone who might seek them out, but most people aren’t going to. What people do notice, however, is that their paychecks didn’t look much bigger after the tax cut. Maybe they’re getting a few more dollars a week, but it certainly wasn’t lifetransforming.
That probably influences perceptions, but I’d contend that where Republicans really lost was not in the factchecking and media analyses (close as those are to my heart) or even in people’s paychecks, but in the relentless Democratic messaging on this issue. It had the benefit of being 1) easy to understand, 2) consistent with what people already believed about Republicans, and 3) completely true. Democrats repeated over and over that this was a tax cut for the wealthy and corporations, which it was.
So what is the Republican answer to their communication failure? Again, from Kapur and Green:
“Still, Republican leaders continue to try to sell the law. They’re planning on holding a floor vote in the House next week for a second phase of tax changes that would make the individual changes permanent. Since it has a slim chance of passing the Senate, the effort is seen as a political messaging tool to remind voters of the cuts and force Democrats to take an uncomfortable vote against tax relief for middleclass Americans.”
That is no doubt what Republicans think, but it’s somewhere between questionable and ridiculous.
I promise you that if they lose power in this election or in 2020, the next time Republicans manage to gain control of both the White House and the Congress, the first thing they’ll do is cut taxes. It’s their nature. Whether the public wants it or not.