POLL HAS POLIS WITH BIG LEAD OVER STAPLETON

The latest survey of Colorado voters puts the Democrat ahead in gubernatorial race

The most recent survey has the Democratic candidate, Jared Polis, ahead by 11 points in the gubernatorial race with GOP’s Walker Stapleton.

A poll of about 1,600 registered Colorado voters found that Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Polis had an 11 percentagepoint lead over Republican Walker Stapleton in the race for governor in Colorado.

Polis had the support of 44 percent of respondents, while Stapleton had 33 percent. The margin of error was 3 percentage points, meaning the pollsters are statistically confident that Polis holds a lead among Colorado’s voters.

“Wow,” Seth Masket, the director of the University of Denver’s Center on American Politics, said of the result. The poll also showed a wave of Democratic enthusiasm in congressional races and some consensus about Colorado’s top issues.

The poll of registered voters was conducted by the Colorado Health Foundation and the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation from midAugust through Sept. 19. It is the second major poll about the race to be published. A survey with a smaller sample found a 7point lead for Polis in September.

Both polls captured voters fairly early in the campaign, missing out on the potential effects of the first debates and continued campaign spending.

“Unfortunately, we don’t really have a great sense of momentum or direction,” Masket said. “It obviously still suggests a pretty good environment for Polis.”

Still, the new poll left room for hope among Republicans: About 21 percent of voters said they were undecided, didn’t know or refused to answer.

That’s not unusual for a gubernatorial campaign in September, but it “could be the one real dose of concern for Polis,” Masket said. Still, he noted, the odds of undecided voters splitting strongly for Stapleton are “fairly remote.”

Also, the margin of error could mean that Polis’ lead is several points smaller or larger among the state’s full set of voters.

The poll found evidence of a surge of enthusiasm for Democrats in congressional races.

About half of registered Democrats described themselves as “more enthusiastic” about congressional races — such as Democrat Jason Crow’s challenge of Republican Rep. Mike Coffman — compared to 2016.

By comparison, only about 30 percent of registered Republicans and independents said they were “more enthusiastic” about the congressional races. Democrats also reported more new enthusiasm for Congress than for the governor’s race.

Overall, about 45 percent of voters said they would vote for a Democrat in their congressional district, compared to 37 percent for Republicans. And there were

fewer undecided voters by several points in the congressional races, compared to the governor’s race.

“That could be an indication that folks have made up their mind sooner for the federal races than the state races,” said Kyle Legleiter, senior policy and advocacy director for the Colorado Health Foundation.

Education, health care and housing costs registered as the top issues among all voters. But a strong divide emerged over health care: It was the most popular priority among Democrats, with 33 percent saying it was their single top issue.

By contrast, only 12 percent of Republicans prioritized health care. Instead, their most common top issue was immigration.

A majority of respondents agreed that the state’s economy is improving — but majorities also said that the state’s housing costs, health care costs and substance abuse crisis are worsening.

That may drive demand for government action: About 80 percent of the survey’s full set of 1,803 respondents said it’s “very important” for the state government to address health care costs, while roughly 70 percent said the same for housing costs and for funding mental health care.

Weaker majorities supported spending on programs to prevent hunger and substance abuse and to improve children’s health.

“We have general agreement that yes, there’s a perception that health care costs are getting worse in Colorado, that they want the state government to focus on reducing health care costs or making housing affordable in Colorado,” Legleiter said. But the survey did not ask about specific solutions, he acknowledged.

The survey also found stark differences in Coloradans’ quality of life. White people were “much more likely” to say they had a good quality of life than black or Hispanic Coloradans, according to Legleiter.

In all, 58 percent of respondents said the state was on the right track — though Democrats were more likely than Republicans to be satisfied with Colorado’s directions. Meanwhile, only 39 percent agreed that the United States was heading in the right direction.