KEENUM’S CHANCE
Seven games to sway Elway
Broncos quarterback Case Keenum has about 200 pass attempts to make general manager John Elway’s decision for him. If Keenum plays well and the Broncos squeeze out two or three more wins, Elway would be justified in passing on a quarterback in the first half of Round 1 in the NFL draft next spring.
Let’s say the Broncos finish with five or six wins and draft in the range of Nos. 10-15. Elway, confident Keenum will be effective in 2019, could draft a cornerback such as Georgia’s Deandre Baker (seven interceptions in 48 career games entering Saturday) or an offensive tackle like Kansas State’s Dalton Risner (a Wiggins High alumnus who has started at right tackle and center).
The Broncos could then circle back early in Round 2 for a quarterback who can be developed in 2019, someone like West Virginia’s Will Grier or Duke’s Daniel Jones.
If Keenum stays at the bottom of the third down and red-zone passer rating standings, where he is now, the deliberations become more serious and complicated.
A 4-12 record would probably put the Broncos in the top 10 and Elway in position to take a quarterback like Justin Herbert of Oregon or Drew Lock of Missouri. That player doesn’t need to start right away, but the clock on Keenum will be ticking.
Keenum has a $21 million salary cap number in 2019. The Broncos could save $11 million by cutting him after this season. But unless Elway completely pivots and wants to add another high-priced veteran passer, Keenum probably figures in the team’s plans next year.
To that end, perhaps in an effort to prop him up to a ticked-off fan base, the Broncos spent much of the last two weeks complimenting Keenum for his play in the loss to Houston (26-of-42 for 290 yards, one touchdown and his first interception-free game of the season).
On radio during the bye week, Elway said it was Keenum’s best game of the year.
In the media room Monday, coach Vance Joseph said it was “one of” Keenum’s best games.
And on Thursday, offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave said Keenum “definitely did some good things.”
The Broncos are banking on the developing Musgrave-keenum relationship leading to better starts, better middles and better endings over the final seven games.
I found it interesting and surprising how the Broncos have been pointing out the playcaller/quarterback rapport takes many months to develop. This is not the first rodeo for Musgrave or Keenum. I assumed their experience would equal a near-instant connection. Guess not.
“I think it’s very common to take some time with those things,” Joseph said. “As time goes along, (Keenum is) going to get better, obviously. Being with Billy for a couple of months now, he’s getting a feel for how Billy calls a game and vice versa.
“He’s going to play better and better as we go along.”
In the last five games (1-4 record), Keenum has eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
The key for Keenum in showing he merits the Week 1 2019 assignment: Improving on his currently woeful work on third down and in the red zone — the money down and the money scoring area.
Third down (last year): Keenum posted an 85.8 passer rating, 14th out of the 38 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts.
Third down (this year): Keenum has an 82.5 rating, 23rd of the 29 passers with at least 50 attempts.
Red zone (last year): Keenum had a 110.4 rating (third among passers with at least 30 attempts), 16 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Red zone (this year): Keenum has a 52.4 rating (last among the 30 passers with at least 20 attempts), five touchdowns and three interceptions.
Keenum knows the deal.
He’s been enough places to know only production equals future opportunities. He knows playing behind a rebuilt offensive line (new starters at center, right guard and left guard on Sunday), two rookie running backs and three first-year receivers can’t be used as excuses. Finding ways to win with a fractured depth chart would only crystallize Keenum’s value.
“In a lot of ways, I think we’re finding our identity,” he said. “I think we’re getting better at running the ball and building our passing game off the run game, too. I think we’re getting more efficient in the red zone. I think we’re getting better on third down, too. (If ) we keep getting better at those things and (in) the crucial situations, we’re going to win
more games than we (lose).”