Which teams will rise toward playoffs?
The NFL is set up, through its draft and salary cap, to fuel instant turnaround seasons. Teams that were also-rans the year before suddenly burst into contention. Teams that were solidly in the postseason last year discover the follow-up sledding difficult.
In 2018, Houston, Baltimore, Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC and Chicago, Dallas, Seattle in the NFC reached the postseason after not making it in 2017.
Which teams will experience a similar turnaround this year? In part 2 of the NFL Look-Ahead Series, Broncos beat writers Ryan O’Halloran and Kyle Fredrickson hash out some of the candidates.
Question: Which AFC team that didn’t finish last in 2018 has the best chance to go from playoff spectator to playoff participant?
RO : Pittsburgh. Yes, the Steelers sent receiver Antonio Brown to Oakland, let running back Le’Veon Bell sign with the Jets and watched maybe the league’s best position coach (Mike Munchak) leave to lead the Broncos’ offensive line. But the AFC North is there for the taking. Baltimore won the division but is revamping its offense for quarterback Lamar Jackson. The guess here is the distractions of Brown and Bell will liberate the Steelers and they return to the playoffs.
KF: Cleveland. Finally, the Browns will turn the page from an annual joke to a legitimate playoff contender, just so long as new coach Freddie Kitchens avoids the typical front office turmoil that’s plagued the franchise. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has suddenly turned Cleveland into a prime destination, shown by the addition of wide receiver Odell Beckham to join Jarvis Landry. The Browns’ recent defensive draft focus should also pay dividends. As you mentioned, the AFC North is wide open. I like the Browns chances to take it.
Question: Turning to the NFC, which team that didn’t finish in last in 2018 is the most well-built for a turnaround?
RO : If Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Aaron Rodgers can make it to Week 1 on speaking terms, the Packers have a shot. Look, Rodgers, because of his status as one of the game’s top players/improvisers, was going to chafe at whoever replaced coach Mike McCarthy. But if Rodgers buys into leaning on his young receivers and corrects his mechanics and decision-making, he should have a fine year. The defense, though, is a reason for my tepid optimism. The Packers signed safety Adrian Amos and linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith to a unit that had 44 sacks, but few impact plays (seven interceptions).
KF: I have less rosy expectations for Year 1 of the RodgersLaFleur marriage, setting up a postseason run for Minnesota through the NFC North. Quarterback Kirk Cousins can flip the “overpaid” narrative if running back Dalvin Cook provides a healthy balance alongside the Vikings’ potent wide receiver corps of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. And don’t sleep on defense being the real strength of this team. It was a top-five unit last year and returns one of the game’s rising defensive line stars in Danielle Hunter.
Question: Let’s take a look at 2018’s eight last-place teams — Oakland, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, the Jets, the Giants, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Arizona — has the best chance of going worst to first?
RO : Yikes, not exactly a bumper crop of candidates. By default, I’ll go with Jacksonville. The Jaguars have a ton of issues (replacing Telvin Smith at weakside linebacker, pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue’s unhappiness and offensive line uncertainty), but they upgraded at quarterback with Nick Foles and still have an elite defense. That combination could help them return to the playoffs for the second time in three years.
KF: Bruce Arians is taking on quite the rebuilding project in Tampa Bay with quarterback Jameis Winston edging toward bust and longtime defensive leader Gerald McCoy cut in May and joining division rival Carolina. But Arians led one of the most impressive turnarounds in recent NFL history as the interim Colts coach in 2012, pushing Indy from two to 11 wins. Who says he can’t do it again with the Bucs?