JOB GROWTH IN METRO DENVER BEGINS TO SLOW
Metro Denver’s economy, once a national leader in creating jobs, is starting to look a little winded.
A ranking Monday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics places metro Denver 32nd for job growth out of the 51 largest metros with a population of 1 million or more. Employment rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months through May, below the national average and on par with New York and Philadelphia.
That 1.2 percent pace trails the 1.8 percent rate seen at the start of the year and is under half the 2.6 percent annual gain averaged over the past 10 years. Metro areas with more robust job growth than metro Denver in May include Memphis, St. Louis, Cleveland and Kansas City, Mo.
A few sectors are now shedding jobs on an annual basis in metro Denver, according to the BLS. They include leisure and hospitality, financial activities and information. Government hiring is nearly flat and anemic in natural resources and construction.
“Uncertainty is having a large influence in these sectors, especially natural resources,” said Patricia Silverstein, an economist with Development Research Partners. “Consumer sentiment was challenged in the first half of the year, so retail and leisure spending suffered.”
Global trade tensions and tighter monetary policy have weighed on consumer sentiment this year.
The area’s unemployment rate, however, has dropped even as hiring has slowed in metro Denver. It went from 3.6 percent at the end of last year to 2.4 percent in May, according to the BLS. That indicates something else may be at play beyond an employer pullback — a shortage of workers.
“I think the growth of the Colorado economy has been stymied by the lack of qualified and trained workers. We have been 54 months with the unemployment rate below 4.5 percent. The situation has been made worse by the fact that the population growth is slowing,” said Broomfield economist Gary Horvath.
On Monday afternoon, he was at a bank when a customer complained loudly about slow service. An employee said the bank was hiring and suggested the aggrieved woman apply.
“She turned him down,” Horvath said. The region’s top economic development
rivals haven’t experienced as severe a slow down as Denver. Metro Phoenix led the country with a 3.2 percent increase in non-farm employment the past year through May. Dallas’ economy added jobs at a 2.9 percent clip, Seattle at 2.7 percent, Austin at 2.4 percent. Salt Lake City boosted employment 2.2 percent.
Slower job growth, combined with historically high housing costs, could also make metro Denver less attractive to those looking to relocate. Cook County in Illinois has sent a lot of people to Colorado with not many people relocating the other way. Now Chicago, the Cook County seat, is enjoying more robust job growth than Denver.
Metro Denver’s housing market, already showing signs of softening, could come under further pressure if hiring weakens. Home sales in metro Denver were down 14 percent in June compared to a year ago, and Silverstein said that is weighing on purchases of furniture, appliances and other items.
But several parts of the local economy continue to do well, Silverstein said. Hiring in professional and businesses services, an important source of high-paying jobs, remains strong, and employers can’t get enough technology workers.
And while retail hiring is slowing, warehouses and distribution companies that serve online retailers continue to add workers at a fast clip, she said.
“Every business leader that I talk to is still operating at warp speed,” Silverstein said. “The economic development community remains busy with new prospects and information requests. Nonetheless, there is an undertone of ‘How long will this last?’ “