FALCONS IN A BOWL?
Analyst Palm rates area teams
Fun fact: Since the Pac-12 expanded to 12 teams and two divisions in 2011, the circuit has seen 20 debut seasons by a new coach. Eight programs, including the CU Buffs, changed horses at least twice from 201118. The combined record of those Year 1s was 125-128 (.494), for an average mark of 6-6.
Groovy, right? Buffs fans would take that in a heartbeat from Mel Tucker, given a slate that draws the top four programs in the North and two likely bowl squads during the run-up to conference play.
Mind you, there’s a catch, and the fine print is less kind. Of those 20 debuts, 11 wound up as winning seasons. But of those 11, seven took place at just four Pac12 schools: Oregon (three), USC (two), UCLA (one) and Washington (one). Toss out the records of the coaches who debuted at those four programs, and the aggregate first-year coach in the league went 64-90 (.416), for an average debut of 5-7. Which would still beat Mike Macintyre’s 4-8 in 2013 by a game and Jon Embree’s 3-10 in 2011 by two victories.
But it also explains, in part, why you won’t find CU in CBS Sports.com playoffs guru Jerry Palm’s preseason bowl projections. The CSU Rams are a noshow, too, with only Air Force — pegged by Palm to land in the Armed Force Bowl against Arizona — carrying the state flag past November.
With less than two weeks until the Rocky Mountain Showdown, The Denver Post caught up with the longtime bracketologist for a quick take on what to expect out of the state’s three FBS squads. Here’s what he had to say:
CU
Q: What does Colorado have to do to bowl this fall? What’s the key game/swing game for the Buffs? Does CU have to be 3-0 after that September stretch of CSU, Nebraska and Air Force to even sniff it?
Palm: If Colorado is going bowling, the six most likely wins are CSU, Air Force, Arizona, USC, Stanford, at UCLA. If the Buffs do beat Nebraska, it gives them a cushion, and they are probably better than I think.
Q: How many wins have you projected CU for this season? And why?
Palm: Four — I think the schedule does them no favors. I have them bottom of the division. Transition years are tough.
Q: What’s a fair bar/expectation for Mel Tucker as a firsttime Power 5 coach in Year 1?
Palm: Play with energy and desire and let the chips fall where they may. A bowl would be a great, but falling short of that does not make it a bad season.
CSU
Q: What does CSU have to do to bowl this fall? What’s the key game/swing game for the Rams?
Palm: Overcome a difficult schedule. They are in the better division of the Mountain West to begin with, then draw Fresno State and San Diego State from the other division. On top of that, any nonconference win over an FBS opponent would be considered an upset. There isn’t one swing game, but I think the Rams have to beat Toledo in Week 4 to have any hope at all.
Q: How many wins have you projected for CSU this season? And why?
Palm: Three. Could be better this year than last, but that schedule is rough.
Q: How many wins does Mike Bobo need, in your estimation, to stay off the hot seat?
Palm: Not sure I can answer this question. Obviously, backto-back three-win seasons would not be good.
Air Force
Q: So is AFA basically carrying
everybody else’s water this fall? How many wins do you project the Falcons getting? And why?
Palm: Maybe. I do have them in a bowl with six wins, but it will likely require winning at Hawaii or Colorado State. Or both. I won’t be surprised if making a bowl game requires a strong finish to the season, but the schedule gives them the chance.