Outbreak is testing European cohesion, alliances, democracy
The rapid spread of COVID-19 presents a severe test for democracies, for the European Union as an institution and for the trans-Atlantic alliance.
And so far, it has been every nation for itself.
When Italy begged for aid, the EU appeared to delay and fumble, with member states ignoring calls for solidarity. The United States, for its part, chose to try to cut itself off from Europe.
The decision by President Donald Trump to divide the United States from its European allies through a travel ban and blame them for inaction, rather than take a leadership role in cooperation and coordination, struck many analysts as particularly politicized and damaging, especially as European governments say the ban was imposed unilaterally without consulting them.
But the search for scapegoats — first China, then Europe — is seen as part of the inevitable politicization of a crisis some are comparing to wartime.
The responses of democracies — especially as states take increasingly harsher steps, as in Italy, to control the movement of their own citizens, let alone foreigners — may be a significant boon to Europe’s far-right nationalists, who favor a strong nation-state and oppose immigration and globalization.
“After 9/11 and the 2008 global financial crisis, this is the third big test of our decency and ability to cooperate, because the virus does not respect borders,” said Constanze Stelzenmüller, a German and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “We need to cooperate across the board, in health management and fiscal stimulus.”
For the EU and the new team at its executive arm, the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, this pandemic is a challenge to her intention to have a “geopolitical commission,” Stelzenmüller said — “if the member states let her.”
This is a major test for the EU, with the virus piled on top of existing crises over migration and rule of law, said Paul Adamson, founder of Encompass, a journal on Europe. “European values, solidarity, sticking together sound like hollow phrases, and we haven’t reached a spike in the virus yet,” he said.
Over time, the virus itself may impose its own kind of discipline on feckless political leaders. The virus does not respect rhetoric, inaction, a lack of coordination or restrictions with gaping loopholes — all of which it is exposing.
Solidarity has been in short supply. Germany and France restricted the export of medical supplies, in violation of the European single market, and Austria and the Czech Republic have banned travelers from Italy, in violation of the principle of free travel.
Even Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who was praised for speaking in rational terms Wednesday about how as many as 70% of Germans could catch the virus, was criticized for not announcing strong measures proportionate to that diagnosis.
“I’d also like to see the German chancellor say that ‘we’re all in this together’ and that the Italians will get extra support from us,” Stelzenmüller said.
Instead, that was left to the Chinese, who immediately sent Italy medical experts and promised to provide cheaply 2 million face masks, 20,000 protective suits and 1,000 respirators.
“And that just feeds Salvini,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, referring to Matteo Salvini, the Italian far-right nationalist who is a sharp critic of immigration, globalization and the EU itself.
Matters will get worse with the economic effects of the crisis, Grant said. “The euro crisis could return because there are too many bad debts in banks,” especially in Italy, “and there is still no proper bank resolution regime and no eurozone deposit insurance.”
The nationalists, he said, “will make hay with that.”
If the virus proceeds at pace and governments respond less effectively than in South Korea or Singapore, criticism “will feed into an already troubled political climate, with general frustration and resentment of government,” said Simon Tilford, director of a research institution in Berlin.