NBA’S return, postseason hinge on four factors
Alittle more than two weeks into the coronavirus hiatus and NBA minds are getting restless.
Players whose bodies are conditioned to ramp up their performance at this time of the year are stewing. Coaches who would normally be scouting playoff opponents are left with an indefinite void. Media, typically tasked with figuring out tiebreak scenarios at this juncture of the season, are forced to speculate.
Will there be a second training camp? Will the Nuggets play their remaining 17 games of the regular season schedule? Will the playoffs be truncated? Are fans a part of the equation? Is there a date beyond which the NBA wouldn’t consider extending the season?
In an interview with ESPN, NBA commissioner Adam Silver was asked about the criteria to return. In his answer, he said, “All suggestions welcome.” *Flexes fingers*
In order to return, the NBA has to assess these four factors, in no particular order: Time, risk, money and championship window.
Many have speculated that Labor Day – Sept. 7 – would mark an absolute end date. Extending the season further would potentially impede the start of next season.
That’s a little more than five months from now — a fair amount of time depending on when the virus abates. That’s obviously unknowable. But before locking down any plans, the NBA would need to know how much time it had to condense a training camp, a regular season and a postseason into.
For context, Lebron James speculated he’d need a minimum of1 K weeks of a training camp followed by anywhere from 5-to10 regular season games before the playoffs.
“You’ve been building six months of conditioning and preparation …” James said on the Road Trippin’ podcast, making the point that his internal clock isn’t used to decompressing in March.
With less time, would the league consider three- or fivegame series in the postseason? With more time, might the league play the rest of its regular season?
That bleeds into the next component: risk. By suspending the league before any other U.S. sports organization, the NBA already proved its willingness to get in front of the pandemic. Silver wasn’t willing to assume any more risk after Rudy Gobert’s positive test. The same should be assumed when the league returns. It’s doubtful fans will be allowed to watch in person as that would expose both them and the games to unnecessary threat.
Playing games without fans would constitute a middle ground. Furthermore, it’s safe to assume the NBA will consider anything to mitigate risk to its own players. For that reason, would the league consider ushering all eight playoff teams from each conference to one neutral city in order to minimize travel and exposure? Maybe four regions for 16 teams would suffice.
In that vein, perhaps something similar could be done for a set amount of regular season games, where a cluster of teams could be isolated yet still preparing for the playoffs.
Everything’s on the table, per Silver’s directive, but revenue will have an outsized say in what ultimately happens. Basketball fans were robbed of an NCAA Tournament this season. Would a 30-team tournament, as proposed by Brooklyn Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie, help satiate owners? It’s a complicated dance Silver will endeavor to pull off over the next few months.
Finally, it’s impossible not to consider the opinions of the league’s frontrunners, who’ve spent months solidifying homecourt advantage and building a team capable of lifting the Larry O’brien trophy. James is 35, and the Lakers have held onto the No. 1 seed the majority of the season. Doesn’t he deserve a chance to win his fourth ring? Doesn’t Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee’s year-long dominance warrant an opportunity to win his first? Silver knows that his players are waging an unwinnable battle against time.
We can do nothing but speculate as the league figures out how to return to action. All ideas are welcome.