Who throws more touchdowns in 2020: Broncos’ Drew Lock or Bucs’ Tom Brady?
Kiz: I’ve been daydreaming about football. How about you? While sports is on hiatus, I know that fans like to wrap themselves in the comfort of classic games from the past. (Peyton Manning 51, Tony Romo 48 in 2013 is a personal favorite.) But for me, imagining what’s next is a more engrossing and invigorating way to fill the time. So I ask: Will Broncos quarterback Drew Lock put up bigger numbers this season than Tom Brady does wearing a Tampa Bay Bucs jersey?
O’Halloran: My initial lean is Brady will throw more touchdowns than Lock this year … and that’s not a knock on Lock at all. Brady has joined a Tampa Bay offense that will go through him, even as he turns 43. Everything coach Bruce Arians and play-caller Byron Leftwich will install each week will be about putting TB12 in position to make big plays to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, etc. As evident by the Melvin Gordon and Graham Glasgow signings, the Broncos don’t necessarily want to take the air out of the football, but they do want to run it well enough to set up the play-action game for Lock.
Kiz: Know what I find most fascinating about this Tom vs. Drew debate? While nearly 20 years separate them in age, here are two NFL quarterbacks with a lot to prove in 2020. After showing promise last season, the next big step for Lock is to prove he can be the long-term solution for Denver. Despite owning more Super Bowl rings than can be worn on a single hand, Brady is itching to prove he still has it. So would you rather have the coaching challenge of Vic Fangio or the one faced by Bruce Arians, his counterpart in Tampa?
O’Halloran: The Broncos have put all of their figurative eggs in Lock’s basket. How else to view the addition of Jeff Driskel (he of eight career starts, three more than Lock) as the presumed backup quarterback instead of pursuing a veteran? This year will be Lock’s best chance to prove he should be the guy for the next several years. I’d rather be Arians for at least 2020, because he has the quarterback and receivers to score against any opponent.
Kiz: You are the master of football analysis. Rather than taking a deep dive into the numbers, I like to calibrate how to manage a player’s expectations and limitations. Brady won three of his six rings very early in his career, when he played complementary football before maturing into Tom Terrific. I’m guessing Arians will have to manage a fading legend in much the same manner Gary Kubiak tried to win a championship late in Manning’s career. If the Bucs can get a relatively modest 28 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions from Brady, as well as a playoff berth, everybody would be happy in Tampa.
O’Halloran: Brady would probably agree with me in wanting to throw out his 2019 season because the talent around him was so pitiful. His 24 touchdown passes were his fewest since 2006. A fact about Arians’ quarterbacks is how many hits they take, and that will be his biggest challenge: making sure Tom is still as terrific in Week 15 as he is in Week 3. If Brady looks his age early in the season, the Buccaneers will need to adjust their offense accordingly. For Brady, I’ll go 29 touchdowns/11 interceptions. For Lock, I’ll go 24 touchdowns/12 interceptions.