Why Elway’s unorthodox approach to first two rounds of NFL draft just might work
By drafting receivers with his first- and second-round picks last week, Broncos general manager John Elway moved aggressively to fix an offense that finished no better than 22nd in scoring each of the past four seasons.
It was also an almost unprecedented approach in trying to surround quarterback Drew Lock with needed talent.
The selections of Jerry Jeudy (15th overall) and KJ Hamler (46th) marked only the third time since 1970 an NFL team used its lone first- and second-round picks on receivers, joining the 1996 New York Jets (Keyshawn Johnson and Alex Van Dyke) and 1981 Cincinnati Bengals (David Verser and Cris Collinsworth), according to Pro Football Reference draft archives.
Few among the Broncos’ pointsstarved fan base have complained about Elway’s choice of Jeudy over cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Damon Arnette, left tackle Austin Jackson or edge rusher K’lavon Chaisson — players who went among the next five picks. The decision to double-dip with Hamler was more surprising, but there’s been no overwhelming outcry that Elway passed up on better value in defensive ends Marlon Davidson and Darrell Taylor or cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Trevon Diggs.
In fact, most draftniks have graded Elway’s haul quite favorably.
But was Elway’s aggressive wide receiver play the right call? Should he have been content with Jeudy and moved on to another position? Or should he have taken advantage of a deep receivers class to focus on another position early and circle back in the second round?
Recent history indicates Elway made a solid decision to hedge his receiver bet, uncommon as it may have been.
In drafting the crafty Jeudy to run routes on the outside opposite third-year receiver Courtland Sutton, with the speedy Hamler in the slot, Elway’s unorthodox play may be just what the Broncos needed.
Looking back over the past 10 drafts (2010-19), some interesting trends emerge among receivers taken in the first two rounds.
Thirty-four receivers were drafted in the first round and nine have made at least one Pro Bowl appearance (26.4%), including Cordarrelle Patterson’s three Pro Bowls as a return specialist. During the same period, 44 receivers were taken in the second round, and 12 have made a Pro Bowl (27.3%), including Dexter McCluster and Mecole Hardman as return specialists.
Thus, based on the past 10 years, Hamler is just as likely as Jeudy to make at least one Pro Bowl appearance.
Overall, finding a Pro Bowl-caliber player in the second round has been easier at receiver than other positions that may have interested Elway and the Broncos at No. 46. From 2010-19, just seven of 67 defensive backs (10.4%) drafted in the second round have made the Pro Bowl, per Pro Football Reference. Five of 51 offensive linemen (9.8%) have become Pro Bowl players.
While no player at any position is guaranteed to thrive, and Pro Bowl appearances alone do not define success, consistent contributors have been found in the second round.
So, should Elway simply have waited until the second round to draft a receiver? Not necessarily.
While Pro Bowl receivers have been found about as often in the second round as the first, truly elite receivers have not.
Consider: Those 12 secondround receivers have combined for 20 Pro Bowl appearances (including special teams), but only one has been named first-team All-pro: New Orleans’ Michael Thomas in 2018 and ’19.
Meanwhile, the nine first-round receivers have combined for 38 Pro Bowl appearances and nine first-team All-pro selections.
Of course, players such as Thomas or Green Bay’s Davante Adams can be found in the second round, but more often it has been first-round receivers who have made repeat Pro Bowl appearances. That would suggest Jeudy’s ceiling is considerably higher than Hamler’s, as would be expected.
But nothing about the NFL draft is a given. In all rounds, it is more art than science. For each Dez Bryant or Odell Beckham Jr., there is a Josh Doctson or Laquon Treadwell. For every Juju SmithSchuster or Golden Tate, there is an Aaron Dobson or Ryan Broyles.
Neither Jeudy nor Hamler is a sure thing, but Elway’s conventional plan could hold the keys to more future success.