Signs point to a crime wave headed for Colorado

Conditions in Colorado are ripe for a crime wave. Those conditions are created by the economic downturn resulting from the governmental response to the COVID19 pandemic, seasonal changes, and Gov. Jared Polis’ recent orders.

Whether you believe those orders are good or bad, necessary or too extreme is irrelevant. The impact they will have on crime is real. There have been several recent news reports of a drop in the reports of most areas of crime, but not for good or sustainable reasons.

One concerning example is the precipitous drop in reported child abuse cases. A significant number of reports of child abuse come from people outside of the victim’s home, like teachers, so the practical consequence of the governor’s orders is to greatly diminish opportunities for observations and outcries of abuse. From March 26 to April 30, my Arapahoe County office’s internal numbers show an 80% decrease in reported child abuse cases. Maybe that is a reflection of kids being abuse-free during the lockdown. But probably not.

Criminals take their cues from the justice system. After Gov. Polis encouraged a reduction in jail populations, it became clear that arrests for “low level” property crimes would no longer result in incarceration, but instead low or no bonds. Auto thefts surged. According to the Metropolitan Auto Theft Task Force, weekly car thefts across Colorado spiked from 332 for March 8-14 to an average of 454 for every week thereafter.

On March 25, the governor issued an order suspending the laws governing who, how, and when the Department of Corrections can release prisoners. The express purpose of his order was to release more prisoners into Colorado communities through early parole. DOC is targeting the release of 500 to 700 convicted felons onto our streets.

Certainly, while on parole or under some type of supervision, we can trust that they will be law abiding, right? That’s not the findings of a 2018 survey conducted by the Colorado District Attorneys Council. That survey found that of nearly 1,200 felony cases filed the week of Sept. 1014, 51% were filed against defendants under the supervision of the criminal justice system, but outside of jail or prison.

Shutdown orders across the United States have caused 26 million Americans to file for unemployment. Professor Jeffrey Lin, from the University of Denver department of sociology and criminology, says that an economic downturn has long been associated with an increase in property crime, although cause and effect are impacted by numerous variables.

Add to that the warmer weather. Bureau of Justice Statistics’ studies reveal that household crimes, like burglaries, and aggravated assaults increase by as much as 10% during the summer.

Supposing history, studies, and experts are right and crime surges, do we have the tools to protect the innocent and hold those who would prey upon them accountable?

Our ability to prevent, detect, and fight crime is directly related to the adequacy of our law enforcement resources. They are almost entirely funded by counties and municipalities. The result of the government-imposed shutdown of businesses has thus far resulted in a projected $3 billion budget shortfall for the state.

Aurora, Colorado’s third-largest city, is estimating a budget shortfall of $20 million-$25 million. At least. In Jefferson County, the sheriff’s budget was cut by $3.2 million. That was last year, before the ongoing economic drubbing occasioned by the forced shuttering of businesses.

The Federal CARES Act provided $450 million to Colorado for local government to offset some of the massive COVID-19 expenditures. Otherwise, the resulting budget crunch would lead to reducing public safety resources. Recently, the Polis administration indicated that it intends to keep that money to backfill the state’s budget. We will likely have less law enforcement resources just as we need them most.

These are just a handful of tea leaves that portend a surge in crime. I want to be wrong, but these factors must be discussed as we weigh the impact of the governor’s orders on our state.