IRAN AVOIDING CONFRONTATION
Country is now having limited cooperation with U.S.
After years of increasing tensions that nearly led to war, Iran has moderated its approach to the West, shifting from a policy of provocation to one of limited cooperation. The change reflects an effort to avoid direct confrontation with the United States that the Iranians fear could benefit President Donald Trump in the November election.
Nowhere is the shift more evident than in Iraq, where Iran has backed a pro-American prime minister and ordered its proxy militias to cease their rocket attacks on U.S. forces.
The Americans, while publicly dismissive of any change in Iranian posture, have quietly reciprocated in modest and indirect ways.
Taken together, the openings represent an incipient détente that, even if it does not last or lead to the end of hostilities between Iran and the United States, has already lowered the temperature of the relationship, reducing the risk of open conflict.
“A war is less likely to happen, but there is still the risk of a confrontation,” said Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “But it’s less likely because the intent of the primary actors has shifted. Both Iran and the U.S. definitely do not want a war six months before the U.S. elections.”
Iran’s shift, which it has not announced or explained publicly, appears to be tactical, analysts said, noting that the country still vehemently opposes the Trump administration’s demand that it renegotiate its nuclear agreement with the West and that it has not backed off its goal of ousting the U.S. military from the Middle East. Publicly, both countries remain engaged in verbal warfare.
But the recent signs of de-escalation have been significant:
• After months of hit-and-run attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq that pushed the United States and Iran to the brink of war in January, Iran has called off its proxy militias, and the attacks have largely ceased.
• When Iraq’s Parliament chose a U.S.-backed prime minister this month, Iran, which has been instrumental in choosing previous Iraqi governments, acceded to the choice and helped put him in office.
• In April, Iran reached out to the United States to open negotiations for a prisoner swap, offering to release a U.S. Navy veteran held by Iran in exchange for an Iranian American doctor detained by the Americans.
• Attacks on merchant ships and tankers in the Persian Gulf that threatened one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes for much of last year have been ratcheted down, although not entirely ended.
Diplomats, Iraqi and Iranian officials and analysts cite a combination of reasons for the change, including a fear of war with the United States. They also note that Iran is overextended — fighting a coronavirus epidemic, a tanking economy and public unrest at home — and needs to retrench.
Tehran was caught by surprise when the Americans retaliated for the killing of a U.S. contractor in Iraq in December by killing the leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Soleimani. The United States threatened a disproportionate response if another American was killed, something Iran could ill afford.
“Iran is redefining its regional policies after Gen. Soleimani’s assassination,” Mohamad Hossein Malaek, a seasoned Iranian diplomat and former ambassador to China, wrote in Iranian Diplomacy magazine in April. “It’s reshuffling its cards, it’s reassessing its capabilities, and it has entered the arena with a new perspective and plan.”
Iran has also concluded that escalating tensions with the United States could provoke a war that could benefit Trump politically, improving his re-election chances, according to people familiar with the policy. Since taking office, Trump has withdrawn from the nuclear agreement with Iran and imposed crippling economic sanctions that have devastated Iran’s economy.