RTD faces serious headwinds as it starts ramping up service
For the first time since RTD dramatically curtailed service in the face of the coronavirus pandemic more than a month ago, the transit agency is restoring service on several popular bus lines in the metro area.
Starting Tuesday, frequency will be increased on much of the 15L, which runs down East Colfax Avenue; on the 105, which travels up and down Havana Street in Aurora; the 121, which runs through Aurora on Peoria Street; and the 40, which runs along Colorado Boulevard in east Denver.
“This is the first formal change to the (COVID-19) schedule,” said Tina Jaquez, a spokeswoman for the Regional Transportation District, referring to the sharply reduced schedule that went into effect April 19.
Meanwhile, plans continue toward a September opening of the long-delayed N-Line commuter rail corridor from Union Station to Thornton, RTD said.
But this week’s schedule changes don’t erase the fact that the transit agency faces a tough slog recovering from a pandemic that chopped ridership by at least 60% starting in late March. The next month, the agency abandoned collecting fares on all train and bus lines to slow spread of coronavirus while also requiring that passengers board buses in the rear.
Jaquez said she didn’t know when fares would be restored on all RTD rides.
A bigger indication of the rough road ahead for RTD came into view last week, when the agency released the results of a survey it conducted with 2,662 passengers in early May regarding their perception of the level of safety when riding public transit during a pandemic.
The respondents put RTD at the very bottom — with only 18% backing — of the activities they thought would be safe to partake in during a viral pandemic. Ahead of RTD was visiting friends (22%), going to the grocery store (31%), visiting family (35%) and exercising outdoors (78%).
Of those respondents who hadn’t used RTD in the previous month, three-quarters said they would “wait to see what happens with coronavirus” before riding again, or would delay getting on a train or bus “indefinitely.”
“I’m not surprised at the low confidence in RTD because of the nature of (crowded public transit),” said Lance Longenbohm, head of the union that represents more than 1,000 RTD workers.
“When you get on a bus, even when there isn’t a pandemic, and someone is sick, everyone has it.”
Jaquez said 11 RTD employees have contracted COVID-19 so far, and another two have tests pending.
Longenbohm worries about luring riders back to RTD, especially after reports began filtering in last month that many people experiencing homelessness have been riding the buses and trains because they were free. In fact, in RTD’s survey, several respondents made their displeasure with having to share a bus or train with members of the homeless community loud and clear.
“The buses have become a mobile shelter for the homeless,” wrote one respondent.
“Stop the homeless from riding around the city in the bus all day,” wrote another.
Longenbohm said RTD will have to make public transit something people are going to want to get re-acquainted with again before they stream back to the buses and trains.
“We have to attract people back,” he said.
On the financial side, RTD is facing headwinds as it tries to stabilize its primary revenue source — sales and use taxes. Tax disbursements have taken a massive hit as shopping and eating out has dried up amidst the government-ordered shutdowns of businesses statewide.
The Business Research Division of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder put together a forecast for RTD this month, taking into account the impacts of COVID-19.
With RTD having taken in sales and use taxes totaling $659.4 million in 2019, that number under an optimistic scenario wouldn’t be matched or exceeded until 2023.
Under a medium growth scenario, the 2019 collections wouldn’t be seen again until 2026.
Under the most pessimistic scenario, where coming back from the pandemic is a long and rocky road, RTD wouldn’t see its 2019 tax revenue levels achieved until 2036.
“If people aren’t spending, that definitely has an impact on us,” Jaquez said.