Alarming rise in virus cases

Rates climb in nearly half of states; no clear reason for increase

NEW YORK» States are rolling back lockdowns, but the coronavirus isn’t done with the U.S.

Cases are rising in nearly half the states, according to an Associated Press analysis, a worrying trend that could intensify as people return to work and venture out during the summer.

In Arizona, hospitals have been told to prepare for the worst. Texas has more hospitalized COVID19 patients than at any time before. And the governor of North Carolina said recent jumps caused him to rethink plans to reopen schools or businesses.

There is no single reason for the surges. In some cases, more testing has revealed more cases. In others, local outbreaks are big enough to push statewide tallies higher. But experts think at least some are the result of lifting stayat-home orders, school and business closures, and other restrictions put in place during the spring to stem the virus’ spread.

The increase in infections pulled stocks down sharply Thursday on Wall Street, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 1,800 points lower and giving the S&P 500 its worst day in nearly three months. The infections deflated recent optimism that the economy could recover quickly from its worst crisis in decades.

The virus also is fanning out gradually.

“It is a disaster that spreads,”

said Dr. Jay Butler, who oversees coronavirus response work at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “It’s not like there’s an entire continental seismic shift and everyone feels the shaking all at once.”

That is also happening globally. Places that suffered early on such as China, Italy and Spain have calmed down. But Brazil, India and other countries that were spared initially are seeing large increases. The world is seeing more than 100,000 newly confirmed cases every day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The virus first landed on the U.S. coasts, carried by international travelers infected abroad. For months, the epicenter was in northeastern states. More recently, the biggest increases have been in the South and the West.

The AP analyzed data compiled by The COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer organization that collects coronavirus testing data in the United States. The analysis found that in 21 states as of Monday, the rolling seven-day average of new cases per capita was higher than the average seven days earlier.

Some worry the situation may get worse as social distancing restrictions lift and more people gather. One concern is that large recent racial justice protests across the country might spark at least some spread of the virus.

Another: President Donald Trump this week said he’s planning to hold rallies that may draw thousands of people. He will hold them in four states — Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas. All of them are among the states with rising cases identified in the AP analysis.

Here’s what’s driving increases in some of the states with notable upticks:

Arizona

Republican Gov. Doug Ducey ended a stay-athome order May 15 and eased restrictions on businesses. Arizona residents who were cooped up for six weeks flooded Phoenix-area bar districts, ignoring social distancing guidelines.

The state began seeing a surge of new cases and hospitalizations about 10 days later.

“It seems pretty clear to me that what we’re seeing is directly related to the end of the stay-at-home order,” said Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association.

It wasn’t just that the order ended: There were no requirements to wear face masks, no major increases in contact tracing to spot and stop evolving outbreaks, and no scale-up of infection control at nursing homes, he said.

North Carolina

More testing plus more people out and about during reopening seem to be the main drivers of recent case upticks, said Kimberly Powers, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina.

On Saturday, the state recorded its highest singleday increase, with 1,370.

Texas

Few states are rebooting faster than Texas, where hospitalizations surged past 2,100 on Wednesday for the first time during the pandemic. That’s a 42% increase in patients since Memorial Day weekend, when beachgoers swarmed Texas’ coastline and a water park near Houston opened to big crowds in defiance of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s orders.

Texas’ percentage of tests coming back positive has jumped to levels that are among the nation’s highest. State officials point to hot spots at meatpacking plants and prisons in rural counties, where thousands of new cases have cropped up but have not offered explanations for a rise in numbers elsewhere.

Alabama

Outbreaks in nursing homes and poultry plants helped drive state numbers up, although there was a drop more recently. But that may change — there is evidence of community transmission in the capital, Montgomery, which has become an emerging hot spot, said State Health Officer Scott Harris.

“I think reopening the economy gave a lot of people the wrong impression ... that, ‘Hey everything is fine. Let’s go back to normal,’” Harris said.

Montgomery hospital intensive care units are as busy as during flu season.

Arkansas

Arkansas also has seen increases — in cases, hospitalizations and the percentage of tests that come back positive. But the state’s situation is a complicated story of different outbreaks at different times, said Dr. Nate Smith, director of the Arkansas Department of Health.