Politics. Lindsey Graham’s relationship with the president has mirrored the Republican Party’s.
CONWAY, S.C.» At the first event for state Republicans since the coronavirus shut down the campaign trail, a send-off for a longtime state party operative in one of the most pro-trump counties in South Carolina, there were traces of both Lindsey Grahams.
“Grahamnesty!” shouted one woman, using the mocking nickname critics have for the senator because of his history of supporting comprehensive immigration reform.
But given the firebrand conservatism Horry County is famous for, the skeptics were noticeably outnumbered. The widespread opinion among those in attendance was that Graham’s close embrace of President Donald Trump had made the senator more popular than ever.
If there was any doubt, they said, his passionate defense of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh against accusations of sexual assault was proof of Graham’s Trumpian credentials, never to be questioned again.
“The Kavanaugh hearing was a turning point in this area,” said Marcia Walker, 70, a county resident. “He stood up for what we felt was right. And that was the kind of representation we need, not the wishy-washy stuff.”
“What happened to Lindsey Graham?” is a favorite question of political observers, but it is not much of a mystery. His transition from an outspoken critic of Trump during the 2016 campaign to one of his staunchest allies in the Senate mimics the changes in the mainstream Republican Party, which has married itself to the president and his message after some initial resistance.
The benefits of that decision are evident in Horry
County, a region in the northeast corner of the state that includes Myrtle Beach, where Republicans who were once skeptical of Graham now embrace him fully.
But the potential risks of his shift were evident in 2018, when Democrats won over enough college-educated white voters and disaffected Republicans to elect Rep. Joe Cunningham in South Carolina’s 1st District, Charleston’s ripple in the national “blue wave” of that year’s midterm elections.
Many of those voters participated in the Democratic presidential primary in February. In South Carolina, the Democratic primary is typically associated with black voters, but this year white voters surged to an estimated 50% of the electorate. They are critical to the hopes of Jaime Harrison, the former state Democratic Party chair who is seeking to beat Graham. And with the conclusion of South Carolina’s Senate primaries on Tuesday night, Harrison and Graham are now set to face off in November.
“As my Grandma always told me, ‘Jaime, do what you can do and control what you control,’” Harrison said in an interview. “And that’s mobilize the vote on our side and appeal to people who are moderate Republicans and independents.”
Yet even as Graham faces a determined and well-financed challenger, his strategy may pay off.
In ruby-red South Carolina, he has stuck close to the Republican president, who is likely to win the state in the general election. At the event in Conway, Graham announced that Trump had just called him, drawing reverent gasps and cheers from the audience.
Privately, some Democratic officials admit that while Graham’s conservative turn may be off-putting in some parts of South Carolina, it’s smart politics in a statewide race.
Early public polling indicates that Harrison still has an uphill climb, and Graham has a slight advantage. Internal polling from the state GOP showed that Graham had become South Carolina’s most popular official among Republican voters there. He used to rank among the least popular.
“He started with a strong base in Horry County, but it’s that relationship with President Trump,” said state Rep. Alan Clemmons, who represents Conway in the Legislature. “It speaks to his character, and I think in Horry County we highly respect that.”
An upset victory in South Carolina would have profound national implications for Democrats, who are seeking to loosen Republicans’ vise grip on the Senate. But the campaign effort here is also part of a larger project among liberals seeking to make the American South more competitive, in the hope that states like South Carolina, Georgia and Texas will eventually go the way of Virginia and North Carolina, where Democrats have seen success in recent years.
Before the victory of Cunningham, who declined a request to be interviewed, the sole route to prominence as a Democrat in South Carolina went solely through Rep. James E. Clyburn, the powerful House majority whip, who is even more influential on a local level.
Harrison, who was once an aide for Clyburn, said he recognized the long odds of his task, but believes he is well-positioned to win. He identified two things he needed to do: Replicate Cunningham’s success with white, college-educated voters, and increase the share of the black electorate by bringing in new voters.
Harrison, the first black chair of the state Democratic Party and a former Washington lobbyist, has toed a moderate line when it comes to policy.
He has stayed away from issues that have become litmus tests for progressives, such as “Medicare for All” and tuition-free college. Instead, his website speaks about issues like health care and the student loan crisis in broad, vague terms, saying he supports “lowering the cost of health care for those who already pay too much” and making “college affordable for anyone willing to work hard.”
In the interview, Harrison hinted that he would need third-party candidates to take votes from Graham in the general election. No matter Graham’s best efforts, he speculated, the lingering perception of him as insufficiently conservative could lead to fractures among Republicans.
“Some of those folks just can’t trust this guy because he’s been on both sides of every issue,” Harrison said. “There’s going to be alternatives on the ballot this fall. There’s a Constitution Party person. There’s a Libertarian Party person. And I think there’s enough distrust, at the end of the day, they’re not going to give him their support.”
The race, once viewed as an afterthought as South Carolina focused on the Democratic presidential primary, has slowly consumed the state. Harrison outraised Graham in the first quarter of 2020, bringing in more than $7 million. Graham raised just over $5.5 million, though he had about $4 million more cash on hand from previous fundraising efforts.
Last month, Harrison got some help when an antigraham super PAC premiered its first advertisement, which highlighted some of Graham’s previous anti-trump statements. A spokesperson for the super PAC said that it had secured more than $1 million in donations to air the ad, and that it had placed a six-figure digital buy.
But as some national critics of Graham have denounced him in increasingly personal terms, Harrison has stayed away, relying on outside groups to pelt Graham with negative advertisements. At campaign events — exclusively virtual at the moment — he has focused on introducing himself to his state, where he is less recognizable than his opponent. “You’re probably here because you don’t like Lindsey Graham,” he has said at some campaign events, “but I want you to leave here loving your alternative.”
Dick Wilkerson, a former Michelin executive who was on the finance team for Graham’s short-lived presidential run in 2016, has decided to back Harrison. He said Graham’s embrace of Trump had been enough to repel him, but that he was actively supporting Harrison because of his constituent-focused message.
“I chose to publicly endorse Jaime because of who he is,” Wilkerson said. “And I chose to publicly announce that I won’t support Sen. Graham because of who he has become.”