What effect could shortened season have on Arenado’s chance at Cooperstown?
Kiz: You know I’m Mr. Sunshine, so I believe MLB will stop bickering and play ball for approximately 60 regular-season games. More optimism: An abbreviated schedule would be great news for the Rockies. My rosy scenario: Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story swing hot bats for two months, the dreaded Coors Field bullpen fatigue doesn’t have time to set in and Colorado steals a playoff berth. But we all know Hall voters cast ballots based on stats. This is Arenado’s last season before age 30. Could sacrificing a big statistical year bite him down the road?
Newman: I could see a shortened 2020 — or a lost 2020, if I’m being the anthesis to your Mr. Sunshine — potentially costing Arenado milestones at the end of his playing days, such as the 500-home run club. Joining that prestigious group of sluggers will require a push during the latter half of his career, as Arenado’s averaging 32 homers a year through seven seasons and would have to play nine more seasons at that pace to surpass 500. As for his place in Cooperstown, that will happen (save for a string of injuries that would derail his career) and not playing at all this year won’t affect that trajectory.
Kiz: During the past five seasons, Arenado has finished no worse than eighth in voting for MVP. But how many big years does he have left at the plate? A shortened season will deny him any shot at 40 homers and 100 RBIs. But we know that unless pigs fly in LoDo, Arenado will again win the Gold Glove. So if Arenado can hit .300, compile a gaudy OPS and the Rockies somehow sneak in the playoffs, Arenado might finally win the MVP award this year. Even if there’s a virus asterisk next to that MVP trophy, it would bolster Arenado’s Hall resume.
Newman: World Series ring aside, the only noticeable absence on Arenado’s individual resume — which features seven Gold Gloves, five all-star nods and four Silver Sluggers — is that MVP award. He finished as high as third in the National League voting in 2018, but a condensed schedule would surely favor a Rockies slugger who when hot tends to be red-hot. That was the case for the final couple months of 2019, when Arenado slashed .339/.406/.706 with a 1.112 OPS and 19 homers. The streaky Story has the capability to be in MVP contention, too.
Kiz: The Rockies really need to take the field in 2020, even if health precautions prevent fans from getting their annual summer dose of LoDo sunshine. This team has tough decisions to make about its future and those decisions start with whether Arenado stays or goes in trade prior to next season. If he fails to play like a future Hall of Famer and the Rockies stink, I’m afraid it will not only make it more difficult for Arenado to reach Cooperstown but will also hasten his departure from Colorado.
Newman: The worst-case scenario for Rockies diehards is the season is canceled outright, Arenado is traded in the offseason and his final at-bat in purple pinstripes came Sept. 27 at Coors Field, when he drew an unceremonious sixth-inning walk. The best-case scenario is Arenado plays like an MVP, the Rockies make an expanded playoff field, and a once-in-a-generation third baseman has to pause about whether he truly wants to opt out of Colorado. Can the Rockies be perennial contenders? That is the question Arenado surely wants to see answered for himself in 2020, should there be baseball.