How the governor could convince me not to wear a mask

As a college instructor, I normally teach students how to be more persuasive, but today I’ll be giving pointers on how to be as unpersuasive as possible. Want to convince a skeptical friend, acquaintance, or stranger to wear a mask to curb transmission of COVID19? By the end of this column, you’ll know exactly how to fail that quest.

According to Aristotle, in order to be persuasive, one must offer a logical argument (logos), stir emotions (pathos), and convince others of one’s credibility (ethos). With that as my guide let me first make a compelling argument for wearing masks.

We know that transmission by infected individuals (ill or presymptomatic) is most likely to occur in poorly ventilated indoor environments where people are talking face to face for an extended period of time (15 minutes or more). Loud talking and singing increases transmission by injecting more virus-carrying droplets into the air. On the other hand, transmission while outside or from surfaces is rare, according to the World Health Organization. Masks and social distancing can curb transmission by reducing the amount of droplets in the air passed between individuals.

The infection mortality rate for COVID-19, that is the number of infected people who die from the infection, was estimated to be around .6% by epidemiologists from Columbia University. That would mean that for every thousand people infected about 6 people will die. Other studies have estimated the mortality rate to be even lower, like one out of Santa Clara, Ca. that used antibody tests to put the mortality rate between .12% and .2%.

Some people will have no symptoms at all while others will experience lasting complications such as lung damage. Among people 65 and older, the infection mortality rate could is much higher. Slowing transmission can help protect high-risk people while ensuring hospitals do not become overcrowded. So wear a mask, social distance, and make choices appropriate to your level of risk.

Did it work?

Now let’s consider the unconvincing, irrational, high-drama appeals that are flooding Colorado. First, consider sabotaging your argument with faulty projections and associations. Start with overblown estimates that make COVID-19 look like the Spanish Flu. Follow up by making a direct Spanish Flu comparison even though medical science has advanced over the past century. We now have antibiotics to treat the secondary pneumonia infections that killed the majority of the 50 million flu victims. To get more click bait, toss in a bubonic plague comparison. This terrifying disease killed 66% of those who contract it. Fortunately, Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin in 1928, which has brought the mortality rate down to 11%.

Bad comparisons and faulty projections don’t just mar the logic of the argument; they hurt the persuader’s credibility. Fear appeals are a risky choice in rhetoric. Generate too little fear and the argument will be ignored. Produce too much and your claim will be dismissed with skepticism or a sense of futility.

The only rhetorical method less effective than fear-mongering is shame. A guilt trip is the perfect persuasion tool if you want people to comply temporarily, superficially, or not at all. Be sure to spice it up with profanity for maximum irritation. Call people “selfish bastards” and tell them to “wear a damn mask.” Colorado’s governor, Jared Polis, really won hearts and minds with those messages.

To completely finish off your credibility, be as arbitrary as possible. Capacious power plays have a splendid effect on public trust. Here’s a couple of ideas to cultivate cynicism in the masses: shut down the economy but allow certain favored businesses to remain open. Denounce protests against shutting down the economy and ruining people’s liveliprison hoods as dangerous vectors of disease but praise Black Lives Matters protests as perfectly safe and important. Threaten to cancel schools in the fall even though the infection mortality rate is the lowest among grade school children. Disregard the concerns of parents who can’t home school and the students who feel isolated and depressed. Consider closing playgrounds again.

Be sure to accuse critics of wanting people to die. Declare masks crucial at this moment, mandate their use under penalty of law, then delay the order for two weeks. Shame people who can’t wear masks for health reasons. Amp up the patronizing and sanctimonious tone of your social media posts. With any luck, even those who wear masks will start to doubt your argument.