Who has the edge?
Guards
Has anyone in the NBA seen their star grow more than Jamal Murray over the past 14 games? His outrageous scoring spree against the Jazz helped drag the Nuggets from the brink of elimination, and after taking some lumps early in the second round, Murray erupted in Denver’s second straight 3- 1 comeback. At 23 years old, Murray became the second- youngest player in NBA history to drop 40 points in a Game 7. The guy who holds the record? His name is LeBron James.
If the Nuggets are going to have any chance of keeping their magical run alive in this series, Murray has to be a menace. At 18.5 points per game, Murray was Denver’s leading scorer in four games against the Lakers this season, but his 15.8% 3- point shooting against them is a concern. Does that number play out, or will it be Murray’s 49% 3- point shooting so far this postseason?
It took the Lakers just five games each to oust Damian Lillard’s Blazers and James Harden’s Rockets in the prior two rounds. With that said, dismiss Murray and his teeming confidence at your own peril. Lakers guards Kentavious Caldwell- Pope, Danny Green, Rajon Rondo and Alex Caruso will be tested in their ability to contain the blossoming star. Edge: Nuggets
Wings
Either on the wing, down low or when he’s running the point, James is a freight train that will bust through whatever defensive coverages you throw at him. And in Year 17, you might’ve heard, The King is motivated. Instead of the Clippers and the Bucks, whose supposedly premature “bubble” exits opened up the field, James is staring at a resilient Nuggets team that is pushing the boundaries of expectations. It must be said, James knows something about 3- 1 comebacks in his own right, so perhaps he has some sense of the confidence brewing inside Denver’s locker room.
But the Nuggets still need an answer for him. This series is going to spotlight aging veteran Paul Millsap, who coach Michael Malone will no doubt turn to for his physicality, defensive savvy and toughness. Not that stopping James is a one- man job.
Millsap will likely be the primary defender, but in Jerami Grant and Torrey Craig, the Nuggets have options – with fouls to give. James is on another postseason rampage, with averages of 26.6 points, 10.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game. The Lakers’ malaise from the seeding games appears over. Los Angeles’ defensive rating over their 10 playoff games ( 105.4) would’ve been third in the league during the regular season. If the
Nuggets can limit James’ damage, they’ll have a chance.
Unlike the Clippers, the Lakers have the personnel to guard Nikola Jokic one- on- one. That means there will be less space for Grant, Craig, Gary Harris and Michael Porter Jr. to bury their 3point looks. For Denver to win, the Nuggets will need their 37.6% 3- point shooting percentage against the Lakers to translate to this series.
Edge: Lakers
Big men
Anthony Davis’ first- team All- NBA selection, announced Wednesday, exposed a quirk in the system. Davis earned the spot over Jokic ( second- team) at center by a fairly significant margin. The problem, for those concerned with such things, is that Davis isn’t even Los Angeles’ primary center. In this series, expect JaVale McGee to start alongside Davis and James in the frontcourt.
The point is, after playing a Houston team that’s reinventing traditional basketball norms, the Lakers’ size gives them the adaptability to adjust. Their size is a massive advantage, and their goal should be to dominate the paint, like they did in the regular season. Grant’s length should weather Davis’ impact a little bit, however, this is Davis’ first Conference Finals. He, like James, has been on an absolute tear. He can stretch the floor ( 39% 3- point shooting) and terrorize the glass ( 29 offensive rebounds in 10 games). On defense, his length inside can clog up the paint in a hurry.
That’s why Jokic’s 3- point shooting could be invaluable. He’s connected at an absurd clip ( 44% so far this postseason), and the threat of his outside shooting could draw McGee or Dwight Howard out of the lane, thus freeing up passing and cutting lanes. Jokic hasn’t been nearly as dominant against the Lakers this season as he has other teams, but he and Murray have elevated their games in the postseason. The regular- season version of the Nuggets isn’t the version that’s carried them to their first conference finals since 2009.
Edge: Lakers, slightly
Coaching
In the first round, Malone made a shrewd lineup change that added more two- way punch to Denver’s attack. In the second round, he and assistant Wes Unseld Jr. devised a defensive scheme that stymied the Clippers’ offense over Games 5, 6 and 7. In the second halves of the final three games against the
Clippers, Doc Rivers’ squad averaged 39 points on 30% shooting. If you want to understand how the Nuggets sucker- punched the Clippers, start there.
And from a broader perspective, Denver’s defense has improved rapidly since Game 4 against Utah. Across their last 10 games, the Nuggets have played the equivalent of the sixth- best defense in the NBA during the regular season. Their challenge now is to unearth something James has never seen, or to stick with their defensive principles even as James inevitably solves the riddle.
The Lakers underwent a similar transformation from the seeding games to the playoffs as did the Nuggets. Head coach Frank Vogel knows what he has in Davis and James, but the central question remains whether his supporting cast, beginning with Kyle Kuzma, can raise their game as the moment demands. Edge: Even