What to watch for Tuesday night
State races likely to be called; presidential contest could take days
After months of candidate debates, repetitive TV ads and a pandemic- induced shift to smaller- scale and virtual campaigning, it all comes down to this.
Tuesday will be a tale of two elections in Colorado — and it’s possible, perhaps even likely, that only one of them will provide much clarity before most people go to bed.
Even with a potentially historic turnout brewing, election officials and political observers expect Colorado’s election, determining races from its next U. S. senator to local ballot questions, to be straightforward compared to several states that are experimenting with expanded mail- in voting for the first time.
That doesn’t mean all races will have clear results by late Tuesday, but many of them likely will.
The main event — the presidential election pitting President Donald Trump against Democratic challenger Joe Biden — is another story.
Most scenarios for state- by- state results take into account a slower pace of counting than usual in some key battleground states, particularly in the Rust Belt. Sever
al states’ initial reported returns could point misleadingly in one candidate’s favor — then shift toward the other. In a close race, it may take days, or even weeks, for Trump or Biden to attain the Electoral College majority necessary to win.
“The watchword is patience,” said Seth Masket, a political science professor at the University of Denver. “We’ll probably have a pretty good sense of what’s going on in Colorado that night — just because we have a lot of experience with all- mail elections and Colorado officials can process mail ballots ahead of time. …
“Nationwide, It’s a much slower process. There’s a few states that are likely to be close, and also, they can’t start processing their mail- in ballots until that day.”
Just remember that even though Tuesday marks the end of voting, it’s not the end of counting. It’s actually typical in Colorado and some other states for main ballot counts to take a few days, especially in large counties such as Denver and Boulder — all the while holding the outcomes of very close races in limbo. States don’t certify official results until weeks later, after final military and overseas ballots arrive, ballots flagged for signature mismatches or other deficiencies are “cured,” and county officials complete required reviews and any recounts.
“Election night results have been and always will be unofficial everywhere in the country,” said Pam Anderson, a Republican former clerk and recorder for Jefferson County. She now serves as executive director of the Colorado County Clerks Association.
For the patient and the brave, here is what to watch for — and tips to keep in mind — on Tuesday night and beyond.
Colorado: Normal process, unusual dynamics
Colorado’s established voting system, in which clerks mail ballots to all active voters, is firing on all cylinders, although Anderson said accommodations for COVID19 safety might result in slower counting in some rural counties.
The state’s topline races have been anticlimactic lately. Polls have suggested sizable advantages for Democrats, with Biden leading Trump by double digits in most recent surveys of Colorado voters.
In the Senate race, former Gov. John Hickenlooper has maintained a narrower but still robust lead over Republican incumbent Cory Gardner, with an average margin in October polls of nearly 10 percentage points.
Voters in the 3rd Congressional District will settle the state’s only competitive U. S. House race, choosing between Republican Lauren Boebert, who defeated Rep. Scott Tipton in the primary, and Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush.
Colorado voters also will decide state House and Senate races and several key ballot measures on state and local finances, an income tax cut, creation of a paid family and medical leave program, the legality of late- term abortion and whether the state will join the national popular vote interstate compact, among other issues.
Results will start rolling in just after Colorado’s polls close at 7 p. m. Tuesday.
It should be clear within a few hours whether pollsters were in the ballpark of reality in the big races, political observers said — although there is a chance that an unusual pattern of ballot returns could result in less- predictable dynamics early on, especially for any close contests.
Colorado’s initial results typically include all pre- Election Day voting, accounting for the majority of ballots, and in recent statewide races they’ve had a conservative tilt. That’s because older and Republican- leaning voters tend to return their ballots earlier, while left- leaning voters are more likely to submit ballots at drop boxes or voting centers in the final days, and especially on Election Day.
But that’s gone out the window this time. After ballots were mailed Oct. 9, Democrats dominated early on in return numbers, and unaffiliated voters have surged in the past week. Meanwhile, Republicans have lagged in raw numbers, potentially because of Trump’s public criticisms of mail voting.
That means Republicans likely will make up a larger share of late ballots, potentially even on Election Day itself. Voting centers are open in every county for early inperson voting, with COVID safety measures in place that include social distancing.
Anderson cautioned voters against waiting, noting that all ballots are processed on paper in a similar manner, regardless of the way they’re submitted.
The initial results at 7 p. m. will reflect “a really large proportion of ballots,” she said. “The earlier that folks vote, the larger that proportion will be. And if you want to be part of that big reveal, consider dropping off your ballot and voting a day or two early.”
Tracking Colorado results
Track returns for Colorado races and issues on The Denver Post’s results page, elections. denverpost. com, or the secretary of state’s website, both of which update throughout the night as counties release results in batches ( every 90 minutes for Denver). The Denver Post’s main website, denverpost. com, also will have stories tracking more than two dozen state and local races and issues as well as top national election news.
To track live results for local races, visit the county clerk’s website.
Ryan Winger, the director of data analysis for Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling firm in Louisville, said a way to gauge early signs of Gardner’s viability will be in vote totals in Jefferson, Douglas and Arapahoe counties. These Denver suburbs are full of the unaffiliated voters key to winning statewide races.
“He at least has to fight to a draw,” Winger said, “and have big turnout in the red counties” elsewhere, including in El Paso, Mesa and Weld counties.
Sheila MacDonald, a Democratic political consultant in Denver, said she’ll be watching for signs of her party’s strength in the topline races as well as in tight legislative races and county commissioner races. She noted that the 2018 midterm election’s suburban blue wave flipped several down- ballot county offices to Democrats.
Some of the ballot questions have the potential to be nail- biters. But she says the heavy early turnout could make things simpler in Colorado.
“I just think on Tuesday we’re going to have a very good idea, and we’ll know by 8: 30 p. m. for sure on most of these issues,” MacDonald said, although “maybe there’s a couple where it’s so close that it’s going to take awhile.”
The Post will follow the lead of The Associated Press in projecting winners and decisions on ballot measures.
It’s likely that Denver and some counties will continue processing ballots into Wednesday — and potentially as late as the weekend, depending on Election Day turnout. But barring a breakdown, the majority of ballots should be reflected in Tuesday night’s totals.
Keeping cautious tabs on the national picture
Nationally, the timing of clear results in the presidential race, and in Senate races that are key to determining whether Republicans hold onto their majority, will depend on myriad factors that point to slow results coming out of some key states.
But analysts will be looking for signals in results that favor Biden or Trump — more likely to crystallize in the case of a blowout win by either.
Still, national TV networks and other media outlets say they will be cautious in calling states in the presidential race, potentially waiting well beyond Tuesday in close contests for vote- counting to wrap up.
Several states have approved new rules this year, in part to allow expanded voting options during the pandemic. Those include allowing more people to vote by absentee ballot, allowing mailed ballots to arrive after Election Day ( as long as they’re postmarked by that day) and changes to when clerks can begin processing advance ballots. Some of those measures have been challenged in the courts.
Dave Wasserman, an analyst for The Cook Political Report, warned recently of “blue mirages” and “red mirages” in some states’ initial reported results. They may appear to favor Biden or Trump, depending on when a state counts early ballots, then shift toward the other candidate later.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — all won narrowly by Trump in 2016 and led by Biden in most polls this year — are among states allowing little or no advance processing of early ballots. That makes it likely that significant numbers of ballots won’t be counted Tuesday night, so early reported results will include a disproportionate share of Election Day votes — potentially favoring Trump.
Other states do process early ballots ahead of time. Their initial reported results could disproportionately favor Biden, analysts say.
Florida, Arizona and North Carolina are in that camp, although analysts predict they will have most of their results reported by late Tuesday. Barring hiccups or razor- thin margins, that makes them more likely to be called before the end of the night — providing an indication of whether Trump is able to hold onto three states he won in 2016, or if Biden has flipped them, widening his path to victory.
“The only way we’re going to have any kind of clarity on election night is if Biden does run through those Sun Belt states and it’s not even close,” Winger said.