Offensive makeover difficult proposition
The Rockies’ offense is in a hard place as baseball’s offseason begins.
After a tepid performance during the pandemic- shortened season, there are more questions than apparent solutions as the Rockies look to reboot for 2021.
Yes, there are some inhouse solutions, but the chances of the club making a major acquisition to boost the lineup via free agency appear slim.
Owner Dick Monfort forecasted that reality in a letter to season- ticket holders this past week.
“The financial losses incurred across baseball in 2020 are astounding, with losses at nearly $ 3 billion industrywide and the average club losing nearly $ 100 million,” Monfort’s letter said. “It will take time to rebound, and in some cases, these losses will never be recovered. As a result, there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality, and each club will have to adjust.
“It will take all of us working together to face the uncertain months ahead with determination and hope, and then be ready for a 2021 season.”
Colorado’s list of problems is long, but it’s punctuated by the following key statistics:
• The Rockies’ .311 on- base percentage ranked 25th in the majors and was the worst in franchise history.
• Their team OPS of .716 ranked 18th and was the worst in franchise history.
• They swatted only 63 home runs, ranking 22nd.
The Rockies are counting on rebound performances from a number of players, most especially from star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who hit a career- low .253 with a .738 OPS, while batting
just .175 with runners in scoring position. Arenado will almost certainly bounce back — he’s too good of a hitter not to — but he can opt out of his eight- year, $ 260- million contract after 2021 the season, so questions about a possible trade will continue to linger into next year.
Three other players must significantly improve — outfielders David Dahl and Sam Hilliard, and second baseman Ryan McMahon — for the Rockies to have a chance at a turnaround.
Dahl tried to play through an aching right shoulder — he hit just .183 in 24 games — and ended up requiring surgery. He’s expected to be ready for spring training, but he must show he can stay healthy for a full season. Dahl flashed potential in 2019, playing in a career- high 100 games, hitting .302 with 16 home runs and 61 RBIs before a highankle sprain ended his season Aug. 3.
The problem for both McMahon and Hilliard was far too many strikeouts. McMahon regressed from 2019, his average dropping from .250 to .215, while his strikeout rate rose from 29.7% to 34.2%. Hilliard has power — he hit six home runs in 105 at- bats — but his .210/. 272/. 438 slash line
36.8% strikeout rate led to limited playing time. Hilliard was recalled from the team’s alternative site for the final eight games of the season, but he was 2- for- 21 with nine strikeouts.
“Some of our young players didn’t progress like we had hoped, we had some guys ( who) had down years and we didn’t really hit in the clutch,” manager Bud Black lamented at season’s end.
Black disagreed with the notion that McMahon and Hilliard can only improve by facing live, bigleague pitching.
“They can work on a lot of things, by reviewing their swings and working on their approaches during the offseason,” Black said, adding that he would like both to shorten up their swings.
There are some tantalizing free agents who could help boost Colorado’s offense, chief among them outfielders Michael Brantley, Jackie Bradley Jr., Marcell
Ozuna and George Springer, as well as second baseman DJ LeMahieu, the former Rockies star.
It’s highly unlikely, however, that LeMahieu would return to Colorado after the club showed no interest in re- signing him after the 2018 season, choosing instead to sign first baseman Daniel Murphy to a two- year, $ 24 million contract. LeMahieu got the same deal with the Yankees and became a star in New York, while Murphy was a huge disappointment in Colorado, hitting .269 with 16 home runs and a .742 OPS in 172 games.
Ozuna, 30, had a terrific 2020 season with the Braves, slashing .338/. 431/. 636, with a National League- best 18 home runs and 56 RBIs. He posted a 2.3 WAR ( projected to a 6.2 WAR over 162 games). He would look good in Rockies purple, but unless the Rockies free up money by trading Arenado, the Rockies won’t participate in the Ozuna sweepand
stakes.
It’s more likely that Colorado will make a strong pitch to resign outfielder Kevin Pillar, who was obtained from Boston at the trade deadline. Pillar slashed .308/. 351/. 451 in 24 games and played an excellent center field. Pillar signed a one- year, $ 4.25 million deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2020 season.
The bottom of the order, specifically the catchers, was achingly unproductive. Colorado’s OPS from its catchers was .551, ranking 28th in the majors. The Rockies hit only two home runs, both by backup Elias Diaz. While the Rockies like Tony Wolter’s gamecalling and defense, he struggled with the bat, hitting .230 with a .280 on- base percentage and a .550 OPS.
“My goal this year was ( to get) on base more and it just wasn’t there,” Wolter said near the end of the season. “I want to be that spark for the team, where I get on base all of the time; get on base for the guys at the top of the order.”
There is a prized free- agent catcher on the market: J. T. Realmuto (. 266/. 349/. 491, 11 home runs), but he’s expected to ask for a contract nearing $ 200 million. So the Rockies aren’t in that ballgame. James McCann ( 289/. 360/ .536, seven home runs) would be a good get, but signing him would require the Rockies to venture outside their usual comfort zone.