Latest modeling:
4,000 lives could be saved if Coloradans can continue social distancing through the end of spring.
If Coloradans can keep up what they’re doing to reduce the spread of COVID-19 through the end of spring, more than 4,000 additional friends and neighbors may still be around to celebrate this summer, according to new projections.
In the best-case scenario, the public maintains roughly the level of precautions they’re practicing now, efforts to vaccinate older people stay on track and a more-contagious strain of the new virus never takes hold. Even if everything goes right, however, the pandemic’s death toll could reach 6,000 by June 1, according to the projections from the Colorado School of Public Health.
The state reported about 5,500 COVID-related deaths as of Tuesday afternoon.
Under the worst-care scenario, where people start mixing freely and the more-contagious B.1.1.7 strain takes off, the death toll could reach 10,900 by June, according to the new projections. The state has found 10 cases of the new strain out of hundreds tested, indicating it isn’t yet widespread in Colorado.
More Coloradans are getting vaccinated every week, decreasing the number of people at risk of being hospitalized or dying from the virus, said Beth Carlton, who is involved with the COVID19 modeling team at the Colorado School of Public Health. Keeping up precautions for a few more months will give the vaccination effort a chance to get ahead of the virus, including the new variant, she said.
“This is really about saving lives right now,” she said.
If people have more close interactions that allow the virus to spread, that also allows the morecontagious version to gain a foothold, Carlton said. It can have a snowball effect, with more general spread giving the variant a bigger presence, and a greater presence of the variant leading to more spread, she said.
The COVID-19 situation in Colorado has improved dramatically since December, but that partially reflects how bad it was. About one in every 115 residents are contagious with the virus, which is higher than the estimated prevalence at the peak of the spring wave. If current trends continue, Colorado won’t reach the level of infections seen at the summer low point until late April.
Hospitalizations are still going down, though not as fast as they were a few weeks ago. The modeling report suggested that could be due either to the small postholiday bump in cases, or to the decision to loosen some restrictions in early January.
State epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said Colorado residents need to plan to keep up their current level of precautions through at least June 1. If the public can keep cases and hospitalizations falling, the odds of a negative loop from the new variant are much lower, she said.